Related papers: Rare events and Poisson point processes
The extremal process of a branching random walk is the point measure recording the position of particles alive at time $n$, shifted around the expected position of the minimal position. Madaule proved that this point measure converges, as…
We develop an efficient method to calculate probabilities of large deviations from the typical behavior (rare events) in reaction--diffusion systems. The method is based on a semiclassical treatment of underlying "quantum" Hamiltonian,…
It is known that the number of points in the largest cluster of a percolating Poisson process restricted to a large finite box is asymptotically normal. In this note, we establish a rate of convergence for the statement. As each point in…
Let $\bX=\{X_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ and $\bY=\{Y_n\}_{n\geq 1}$ be two independent random sequences. We obtain rates of convergence to the normal law of randomly weighted self-normalized sums $$ \psi_n(\bX,\bY)=\sum_{i=1}^nX_iY_i/V_n,\quad…
Two new information-theoretic methods are introduced for establishing Poisson approximation inequalities. First, using only elementary information-theoretic techniques it is shown that, when $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ is the sum of the (possibly…
We apply the Stein-Chen method to problems from extreme value theory. On the one hand, the Stein-Chen method for Poisson approximation allows us to obtain bounds on the Kolmogorov distance between the law of the maximum of i.i.d. random…
The article determines the asymptotic shape of the extremal clusters in stationary regularly varying random fields. To deduce this result, we present a general framework for the Poisson approximation of point processes on Polish spaces…
We study a random field obtained by counting the number of balls containing each point, when overlapping balls are thrown at random according to a Poisson random measure. We are particularly interested in the local asymptotical…
In this paper we study the quenched distributions of hitting times for a class of random dynamical systems. We prove that hitting times to dynamically defined cylinders converge to a Poisson point process under the law of random equivariant…
We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…
We construct a non-decreasing pure jump Markov process, whose jump measure heavily depends on the values taken by the process. We determine the singularity spectrum of this process, which turns out to be random and to depend locally on the…
This paper deals with the intersection point process of a stationary and isotropic Poisson hyperplane process in $\mathbb{R}^d$ of intensity $t>0$, where only hyperplanes that intersect a centred ball of radius $R>0$ are considered. Taking…
A validated simulation model primarily requires performing an appropriate input analysis mainly by determining the behavior of real-world processes using probability distributions. In many practical cases, probability distributions of the…
In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…
In this paper we establish lower bounds on information divergence of a distribution on the integers from a Poisson distribution. These lower bounds are tight and in the cases where a rate of convergence in the Law of Thin Numbers can be…
We consider the Gaussian approximation for functionals of a Poisson process that are expressible as sums of region-stabilizing (determined by the points of the process within some specified regions) score functions and provide a bound on…
Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…
Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approximations of conditional densities. This is achieved for events E_{n}:=(f(X_{1})+...+f(X_{n}))\inA_{n} where the summands are i.i.d. and E_{n} is a…
Distribution of the sum of independent identically distributed symmetric lattice vectors is approximated by the accompanying compound Poisson law and the second-order Hipp-type signed compound Poisson measure. Bergstr\"om -type asymptotic…
Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…