Related papers: Multilevel nested simulation for efficient risk es…
This paper focuses on the study of an original combination of the Multilevel Monte Carlo method introduced by Giles [10] and the popular importance sampling technique. To compute the optimal choice of the parameter involved in the…
The order of convergence of the Monte Carlo method is 1/2 which means that we need quadruple samples to decrease the error in half in the numerical simulation. Multilevel Monte Carlo methods reach the same order of error by spending less…
We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…
This paper addresses the issue of estimating the expectation of a real-valued random variable of the form $X = g(\mathbf{U})$ where $g$ is a deterministic function and $\mathbf{U}$ can be a random finite- or infinite-dimensional vector.…
Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly used as surrogate models to increase the efficiency of stochastic reliability analyses in geotechnical engineering. This paper presents a highly efficient ML aided reliability technique that…
This paper introduces an open-ended sequential algorithm for computing the p-value of a test using Monte Carlo simulation. It guarantees that the resampling risk, the probability of a different decision than the one based on the theoretical…
This paper is a follow-up to a previous work where we defined and generated the set of all possible compromises of multilevel multiobjective linear programming problems (ML-MOLPP). In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm to solve…
We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…
Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…
We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…
We are interested in computing the expectation of a functional of a PDE solution under a Bayesian posterior distribution. Using Bayes' rule, we reduce the problem to estimating the ratio of two related prior expectations. For a model…
Weighted least squares polynomial approximation uses random samples to determine projections of functions onto spaces of polynomials. It has been shown that, using an optimal distribution of sample locations, the number of samples required…
Practical structural engineering problems are often characterized by significant uncertainties. Historically, one of the prevalent methods to account for this uncertainty has been the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. Recently, improved…
Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…