Related papers: State Space Gaussian Processes with Non-Gaussian L…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…
State space modelling is an efficient and flexible method for statistical inference of a broad class of time series and other data. This paper describes an R package KFAS for state space modelling with the observations from an exponential…
We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) offer a principled framework for learning and inference in nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification. However, existing GPSSMs are limited by the use of multiple independent…
Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…
State-space models are used in a wide range of time series analysis formulations. Kalman filtering and smoothing are work-horse algorithms in these settings. While classic algorithms assume Gaussian errors to simplify estimation, recent…
The use of Gaussian process models is typically limited to datasets with a few tens of thousands of observations due to their complexity and memory footprint. The two most commonly used methods to overcome this limitation are 1) the…
Gaussian process (GP) regression with 1D inputs can often be performed in linear time via a stochastic differential equation formulation. However, for non-Gaussian likelihoods, this requires application of approximate inference methods…
Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e.,…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible non-parametric approach to approximate complex models. In many cases, these models correspond to processes with bounded physical properties. Standard GP regression typically results in a proxy…
Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a principled probabilistic model over functions, but exact inference is restricted to the linear-Gaussian regime. We establish an explicit equivalence between GPs and a class of linear diffusion models,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…
In this article, we introduce parallel-in-time methods for state and parameter estimation in general nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models using the statistical linear regression and the iterated statistical posterior linearization…
Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex computer model behaviour across the input space. Motivated by the problem of coupling computer models, recently progress has been made in the theory of the analysis of…
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by…