Related papers: Projecting UK Mortality using Bayesian Generalised…
Death among subjects is common in observational studies evaluating the causal effects of interventions among geriatric or severely ill patients. High mortality rates complicate the comparison of the prevalence of adverse events (AEs)…
In life insurance, life tables are used to estimate the survival distribution of individuals from a given population. However, these tables only provide survival probabilities at integer ages but no information about the distribution of…
A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…
This paper investigates projection of two major causes of cancer mortality, breast cancer and lung cancer, by using a Bayesian modelling framework. We investigate patterns in 2001-2018 (as baseline) in cause-specific cancer mortality and…
The risk of dying increases exponentially with age, in humans as well as in many other species. This increase is often attributed to the "accumulation of damage" known to occur in many biological structures and systems. The aim of this…
Joinpoint regression is used to determine the number of segments needed to adequately explain the relationship between two variables. This methodology can be widely applied to real problems, but we focus on epidemiological data, the main…
Causal inference with observational longitudinal data and time-varying exposures is often complicated by time-dependent confounding and attrition. The G-computation formula is one approach for estimating a causal effect in this setting. The…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
In epidemiological studies of air pollution and public health, estimating the health impact of exposure to air pollution may be hindered by the unknown functional form of the exposure-outcome association and by unmeasured confounding…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
As we gain access to a greater depth and range of health-related information about individuals, three questions arise: (1) Can we build better models to predict individual-level risk of ill health? (2) How much data do we need to…
Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is widely adopted for regression modeling for longitudinal data, taking account of potential correlations within the same subjects. Although the standard GEE assumes common regression coefficients among…
Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is challenging…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Dynamic event prediction, using joint modeling of survival time and longitudinal variables, is extremely useful in personalized medicine. However, the estimation of joint models including many longitudinal markers is still a computational…
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…
We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
Degradation data are considered for assessing reliability in highly reliable systems. The usual assumption is that degradation units come from a homogeneous population. But in presence of high variability in the manufacturing process, this…