Related papers: Statistical tests for extreme precipitation volume…
The paper presents improved mathematical models and methods for statistical regularities in the behavior of some important characteristics of precipitation: duration of a wet period, maximum daily and total precipitation volumes within a…
Based on the negative binomial model for the duration of wet periods measured in days, an asymptotic approximation is proposed for the distribution of the maximum daily precipitation volume within a wet period. This approximation has the…
We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…
In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…
The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…
In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…
A new approach for evaluating time-trends in extreme values accounting also for spatial dependence is proposed. Based on exceedances over a space-time threshold, estimators for a trend function and for extreme value parameters are given,…
Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…
Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…
Daily rainfall extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the last decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these…
Understanding the spatial extent of extreme precipitation is necessary for determining flood risk and adequately designing infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipes) to withstand such hazards. While environmental phenomena typically exhibit…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
For over a century, raindrop size distributions have been a subject of extensive scientific study, typically described by models including the Marshall-Palmer exponential equation, gamma, Weibull, lognormal, and other mathematical…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…