Related papers: Statistical tests for extreme precipitation volume…
This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…
The runup of initial Gaussian narrow-banded and wide-banded wave fields and its statistical characteristics are investigated using direct numerical simulations, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations. The bathymetry consists of the…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…
We consider daily rainfall observations at 32 stations in the province of North Holland (the Netherlands) during 30 years. Let $T$ be the total rainfall in this area on one day. An important question is: what is the amount of rainfall $T$…
Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…
To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…
Gridded data products, for example interpolated daily measurements of precipitation from weather stations, are commonly used as a convenient substitute for direct observations because these products provide a spatially and temporally…
By recognizing that the main difficulty of the modeling of daily precipitation amounts is the selection of an appropriate probability distribution, this study aims to establish a model selection framework to identify the appropriate…
Semi-continuous data comes from a distribution that is a mixture of the point mass at zero and a continuous distribution with support on the positive real line. A clear example is the daily rainfall data. In this paper, we present a novel…
A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…
Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…
A common approach for modeling extremes, such as peak flow or high temperatures, is the three-parameter Generalized Extreme-Value distribution. This is typically fit to extreme observations, here defined as maxima over disjoint blocks. This…
Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…
The statistical modelling of spatial extremes has recently made major advances. Much of its focus so far has been on the modelling of the magnitudes of extreme events but little attention has been paid on the timing of extremes. To address…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…