Related papers: Memory-induced complex contagion in epidemic sprea…
The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise,…
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…
We investigate infectious disease spreading on scale-free networks using a heterogeneous mean-field approach applied to the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, incorporating a mitigation factor. Individual heterogeneity is incorporated…
We introduce a new type of point process model to describe the incidence of contagious diseases. The model is a variant of the Hawkes self-exciting process and exhibits similar clustering but without the restriction that the component…
Complex networks have been successfully used to describe the spread of diseases in populations of interacting individuals. Conversely, pairwise interactions are often not enough to characterize social contagion processes such as opinion…
We show that the simplest stochastic epidemiological models with spatial correlations exhibit two types of oscillatory behaviour in the endemic phase. In a large parameter range, the oscillations are due to resonant amplification of…
Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of…
Single contagion processes are known to display a continuous transition from an epidemic-free phase at low contagion rates to the epidemic state for rates above a critical threshold. This transition can become discontinuous when two simple…
In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for…
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
Empirical temporal networks display strong heterogeneities in their dynamics, which profoundly affect processes taking place on these networks, such as rumor and epidemic spreading. Despite the recent wealth of data on temporal networks,…
The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a…
We study epidemic arrival times in meta-population disease models through the lens of front propagation into unstable states. We demonstrate that several features of invasion fronts in the PDE context are also relevant to the network case.…
A two-step contagion model with a single seed serves as a cornerstone for understanding the critical behaviors and underlying mechanism of discontinuous percolation transitions induced by cascade dynamics. When the contagion spreads from a…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point of all past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the mechanism for the interplay of deterministic and stochastic models for contagious diseases. Deterministic models for contagious diseases are prone to predict global stability. Small natural birth…
Social reinforcement mechanism, which characterizes the promoting effects when exposing to multiple sources in social contagion process, is ubiquitous in information-technology ecosystem and has aroused great attention in recent years.…