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When facing a heavily-favored opponent, an underdog must be willing to assume greater-than-average risk. In statistical language, one would say that an underdog must be willing to adopt a strategy whose outcome has a larger-than-average…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-11-04 Brian Skinner

Esports, despite its expanding interest, lacks fundamental sports analytics resources such as accessible data or proven and reproducible analytical frameworks. Even Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CSGO), the second most popular esport,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Peter Xenopoulos , Harish Doraiswamy , Claudio Silva

The problem of evaluating the performance of soccer players is attracting the interest of many companies and the scientific community, thanks to the availability of massive data capturing all the events generated during a match (e.g.,…

The process of decision-making in football is characterized by a complex interplay between spatial positioning, opponent pressure, and player intent. This work introduces a Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework designed to predict Receiver…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Gabriel Masella , Giuseppe Alessio D'Inverno , Max Goldsmith , Gianluigi Rozza

Scientifically evaluating soccer players represents a challenging Machine Learning problem. Unfortunately, most existing answers have very opaque algorithm training procedures; relevant data are scarcely accessible and almost impossible to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Paul Garnier , Théophane Gregoir

Sports analytics -- broadly defined as the pursuit of improvement in athletic performance through the analysis of data -- has expanded its footprint both in the professional sports industry and in academia over the past 30 years. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-11 Benjamin S. Baumer , Gregory J. Matthews , Quang Nguyen

Over the last few decades, the player recruitment process in professional football has evolved into a multi-billion industry and has thus become of vital importance. To gain insights into the general level of their candidate reinforcements,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-17 Bart Aalbers , Jan Van Haaren

The baseball statistic "Wins Above Replacement" (WAR) has emerged as one of the most popular evaluation metrics. But it is not readily observed and tabulated; WAR is an estimate of a parameter in a vaguely defined model with all its…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Ryan S. Brill , Abraham J. Wyner

Sports broadcasters inject drama into play-by-play commentary by building team and player narratives through subjective analyses and anecdotes. Prior studies based on small datasets and manual coding show that such theatrics evince…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Jack Merullo , Luke Yeh , Abram Handler , Alvin Grissom , Brendan O'Connor , Mohit Iyyer

In recent years, great emphasis has been placed on the prediction of association football. Due to this, several studies have proposed different types of statistical models to predict the outcome of a football match. However, most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-11 Roberto Macrì-Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 George Peters , Diogo Pacheco

Given the importance of accurate team rankings in American college football (CFB) -- due to heavy title and playoff implications -- strides have been made to improve evaluation metrics across statistical categories, going from basic…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-24 Andrey Skripnikov

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) performance predictors tend to base their algorithms purely on historical statistical data. The main problems with this approach is that external factors such as injuries, managerial decisions and other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-17 Nicholas Bonello , Joeran Beel , Seamus Lawless , Jeremy Debattista

Evaluating the overall ability of players in the National Hockey League (NHL) is a difficult task. Existing methods such as the famous "plus/minus" statistic have many shortcomings. Standard linear regression methods work well when player…

Applications · Statistics 2013-03-01 A. C. Thomas , Samuel L. Ventura , Shane Jensen , Stephen Ma

Although the data-driven analysis of football players' performance has been developed for years, most research only focuses on the on-ball event including shots and passes, while the off-ball movement remains a little-explored area in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva , Mike Caine

American football is an increasingly popular sport, with a growing audience in many countries in the world. The most watched American football league in the world is the United States' National Football League (NFL), where every offensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-17 Gustavo Pompeu da Silva , Rafael de Andrade Moral

A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-27 Robert B. Gramacy , Matt Taddy , Sen Tian

Defensive Pass Interference (DPI) is one of the most impactful penalties in the NFL. DPI is a spot foul, yielding an automatic first down to the team in possession. With such an influence on the game, referees have no room for a mistake. It…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Arian Skoki , Jonatan Lerga , Ivan Štajduhar

Several performance metrics for quantifying the in-game performances of individual football players have been proposed in recent years. Although the majority of the on-the-ball actions during games constitutes of passes, many of the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-05 Lotte Bransen , Jan Van Haaren

Few multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) research on Google Research Football (GRF) focus on the 11v11 multi-agent full-game scenario and to the best of our knowledge, no open benchmark on this scenario has been released to the public.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Yan Song , He Jiang , Zheng Tian , Haifeng Zhang , Yingping Zhang , Jiangcheng Zhu , Zonghong Dai , Weinan Zhang , Jun Wang