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Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the most critical tasks for digital display advertising. Commercial systems often require to update models in an online learning manner to catch up with the evolving data distribution. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-19 Jia-Qi Yang , Xiang Li , Shuguang Han , Tao Zhuang , De-Chuan Zhan , Xiaoyi Zeng , Bin Tong

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-20 Yuta Saito , Gota Morishita , Shota Yasui

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial in E-commerce. However, CVR prediction usually suffers from three major challenges in practice: i) data sparsity: compared with impressions, conversion samples are often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Yanshi Wang , Jie Zhang , Qing Da , Anxiang Zeng

One of the difficulties of conversion rate (CVR) prediction is that the conversions can delay and take place long after the clicks. The delayed feedback poses a challenge: fresh data are beneficial to continuous training but may not have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-13 Siyu Gu , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Ying Fan , Guorui Zhou , Xiaoqiang Zhu

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate, that is, the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, such as purchasing goods is fundamental in estimating the value of displaying the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Shota Yasui , Gota Morishita , Komei Fujita , Masashi Shibata

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mingxuan Luo , Guipeng Xv , Sishuo Chen , Xinyu Li , Li Zhang , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Chen Lin

Alleviating the delayed feedback problem is of crucial importance for the conversion rate(CVR) prediction in online advertising. Previous delayed feedback modeling methods using an observation window to balance the trade-off between waiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Yu Chen , Jiaqi Jin , Hui Zhao , Pengjie Wang , Guojun Liu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Junhyung Ahn , Sanghack Lee

Predicting the expected value or number of post-click conversions (purchases or other events) is a key task in performance-based digital advertising. In training a conversion optimizer model, one of the most crucial aspects is handling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-08 Ashwinkumar Badanidiyuru , Andrew Evdokimov , Vinodh Krishnan , Pan Li , Wynn Vonnegut , Jayden Wang

Conversion and conversion rate (CVR) prediction play a critical role in efficient advertising decision-making. In past decades, although researchers have developed plenty of models for CVR prediction, the methodological evolution and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Tao Xue , Yanwu Yang , Panyu Zhai

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the core components in online recommender systems, and various approaches have been proposed to obtain accurate and well-calibrated CVR estimation. However, we observe that a well-trained CVR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Zhangming Chan , Yu Zhang , Shuguang Han , Yong Bai , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Siyuan Lou , Jiacen Hu , Baolin Liu , Yuning Jiang , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is a critical task in e-commerce recommender systems. This task is deemed quite challenging under the industrial setting with two major issues: 1) selection bias caused by user self-selection, and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-04-07 Wenhao Zhang , Wentian Bao , Xiao-Yang Liu , Keping Yang , Quan Lin , Hong Wen , Ramin Ramezani

The task of predicting conversion rates (CVR) lies at the heart of online advertising systems aiming to optimize bids to meet advertiser performance requirements. Even with the recent rise of deep neural networks, these predictions are…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Alex Shtoff , Yohay Kaplan , Ariel Raviv

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for large-scale e-commerce platforms. However, refund behaviors frequently occur after conversion in online shopping systems, which drives us to pay attention to effective conversion for…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Yunfeng Zhao , Xu Yan , Xiaoqiang Gui , Shuguang Han , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Guoxian Yu , Jufeng Chen , Zhao Xu , Bo Zheng

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is a vital task in many recommender systems of revenue businesses, e.g., e-commerce and advertising. In a perspective of sample, a typical CVR positive sample usually goes through a funnel of…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Wei Cheng , Yucheng Lu , Boyang Xia , Jiangxia Cao , Kuan Xu , Mingxing Wen , Wei Jiang , Jiaming Zhang , Zhaojie Liu , Liyin Hong , Kun Gai , Guorui Zhou

Sales promotions, as short-term incentives to stimulate product purchases, play a pivotal role in modern e-commerce marketing strategies. During promotional events, user behavior patterns exhibit distinct characteristics compared to regular…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Xin Song , Kaiyuan Li , Jinxin Hu

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction plays an important role in advertising systems. Recently, supervised deep neural network-based models have shown promising performance in CVR prediction. However, they are data hungry and require an enormous…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Wentao Ouyang , Rui Dong , Xiuwu Zhang , Chaofeng Guo , Jinmei Luo , Xiangzheng Liu , Yanlong Du

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, crucial in applications like recommender systems and online advertising, involves ranking items based on the likelihood of user clicks. User behavior sequence modeling has marked progress in CTR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Hengyu Zhang , Chang Meng , Wei Guo , Huifeng Guo , Jieming Zhu , Guangpeng Zhao , Ruiming Tang , Xiu Li

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Xinyu Li , Sishuo Chen , Guipeng Xv , Li Zhang , Mingxuan Luo , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Chen Lin

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-25 Xiao Ma , Liqin Zhao , Guan Huang , Zhi Wang , Zelin Hu , Xiaoqiang Zhu , Kun Gai
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