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Related papers: Surprise in Elections

200 papers

We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Steven Heilman

Contributing to the toolbox for interpreting election results, we evaluate the robustness of election winners to random noise. We compare the robustness of different voting rules and evaluate the robustness of real-world election winners…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Niclas Boehmer , Robert Bredereck , Piotr Faliszewski , Rolf Niedermeier

Consider an urn filled with balls, each labeled with one of several possible collective decisions. Now, let a random voter draw two balls from the urn and pick her more preferred as the collective decision. Relabel the losing ball with the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-28 Florian Brandl , Felix Brandt

In many areas of data mining, data is collected from humans beings. In this contribution, we ask the question of how people actually respond to ordinal scales. The main problem observed is that users tend to be volatile in their choices,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-03-01 Kevin Jasberg , Sergej Sizov

Consider an undirected graph G, representing a social network, where each node is blue or red, corresponding to positive or negative opinion on a topic. In the voter model, in discrete time rounds, each node picks a neighbour uniformly at…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Abhiram Manohara , Ahad N. Zehmakan

"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-03 Pavlin Mavrodiev , Frank Schweitzer

Strong empirical evidence from laboratory experiments, and more recently from population surveys, shows that individuals, when evaluating their situations, pay attention to whether they experience gains or losses, with losses weighing more…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-17 Martyna Kobus , Radosław Kurek , Thomas Parker

Many measurements at collider experiments study physics candidates that are a subset of a collision event. The presence of multiple such candidates in a given event can cause raw biases which are large compared to typical statistical…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2019-08-22 Patrick Koppenburg

In district-based multi-party elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. Election Surveys try to predict the election…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Adway Mitra , Palash Dey

We investigate majority rule dynamics in a population with two classes of people, each with two opinion states $\pm 1$, and with tunable interactions between people in different classes. In an update, a randomly selected group adopts the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-23 P. L. Krapivsky , S. Redner

In majority voting dynamics, a group of $n$ agents in a social network are asked for their preferred candidate in a future election between two possible choices. At each time step, a new poll is taken, and each agent adjusts their vote…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Diego Maldonado , Pedro Montealegre , Martín Ríos-Wilson , Guillaume Theyssier

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Alf C. Zimmer

This paper proposes normative criteria for voting rules under uncertainty about individual preferences. The criteria emphasize the importance of responsiveness, i.e., the probability that the social outcome coincides with the realized…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-31 Satoshi Nakada , Shmuel Nitzan , Takashi Ui

When people pursue rewards in stochastic environments, they often match their choice frequencies to the observed target frequencies, even when this policy is demonstrably sub-optimal. We used a ``hide and seek'' task to evaluate this…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-11 Peter DiBerardino , Britt Anderson

We consider a type of pull voting suitable for discrete numeric opinions which can be compared on a linear scale, for example, 1 ('disagree strongly'), 2 ('disagree'), $\ldots,$ 5 ('agree strongly'). On observing the opinion of a random…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-26 Colin Cooper , Tomasz Radzik , Takeharu Shiraga

Coalitional manipulation in voting is considered to be any scenario in which a group of voters decide to misrepresent their vote in order to secure an outcome they all prefer to the first outcome of the election when they vote honestly. The…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-09-28 Mostapha Diss , Boris Tsvelikhovskiy

We consider a voting model, where a number of candidates need to be selected subject to certain feasibility constraints. The model generalises committee elections (where there is a single constraint on the number of candidates that need to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Tomáš Masařík , Grzegorz Pierczyński , Piotr Skowron

We consider a setting with agents that have preferences over alternatives and are partitioned into disjoint districts. The goal is to choose one alternative as the winner using a mechanism which first decides a representative alternative…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Aris Filos-Ratsikas , Alexandros A. Voudouris

Given only aggregate choice data and limited information about how menus are distributed across the population, we describe what can be inferred robustly about the distribution of preferences (or more general decision rules). We strengthen…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-05-16 Larry G Epstein , Kaushil Patel

Consider an election between two candidates in which the voters' choices are random and independent and the probability of a voter choosing the first candidate is $p>1/2$. Condorcet's Jury Theorem which he derived from the weak law of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Olle Haggstrom , Gil Kalai , Elchanan Mossel