Related papers: Change point analysis in non-stationary processes …

The question whether a time series behaves as a random walk or as a station- ary process is an important and delicate problem, particularly arising in financial statistics, econometrics, and engineering. This paper studies the problem to…

We consider the problem of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with the zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n(\Delta T). For a Gaussian Stationary Process the persistence (no…

A nonparametric anomalous hypothesis testing problem is investigated, in which there are totally n sequences with s anomalous sequences to be detected. Each typical sequence contains m independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

Let g(x)=x/2 + 17/30 (mod 1), let \xi_i, i= 1,2,... be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables with uniform distribution on the interval [0,1/15], define g_i(x)=g(x)+ \xi_i (mod 1) and, for n=1,2,..., define…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

A new approach to the steady state detection in the uniformization method of solving continuous time Markov chains is introduced. The method is particularly useful in solving inhomogenous CTMC's in multiple steps, where the desired error…

Statistical inference for time series such as curve estimation for time-varying models or testing for existence of change-point have garnered significant attention. However, these works are generally restricted to the assumption of…

We generalize the method of surrogate data of testing for nonlinearity in time series to the case that the data are sampled with uneven time intervals. The null hypothesis will be that the data have been generated by a linear stochastic…

We study a special case of the problem of statistical learning without the i.i.d. assumption. Specifically, we suppose a learning method is presented with a sequence of data points, and required to make a prediction (e.g., a classification)…

We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…

It is difficult to choose detection thresholds for tests of non-stationarity that assume {\em a priori} a noise model if the data is statistically uncharacterized to begin with. This is a potentially serious problem when an automated…

Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional…

This paper develops a new approach to the estimation of the degree of boundedness or stability of multidimensional nonlinear systems with time-dependent nonperiodic coefficients-an essential task in various engineering and natural science…

We propose a new statistical test to identify non-stationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from…

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of multivariate or non-Euclidean observations. We study a nonparametric framework that utilizes similarity information…

For a discrete time Markov chain and in line with Strotz' consistent planning we develop a framework for problems of optimal stopping that are time-inconsistent due to the consideration of a non-linear function of an expected reward. We…

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the…

Contagion arising from clustering of multiple time series like those in the stock market indicators can further complicate the nature of volatility, rendering a parametric test (relying on asymptotic distribution) to suffer from issues on…