Related papers: Test Martingales for bounded random variables
In sequential anytime-valid inference, any admissible procedure must be based on e-processes: generalizations of test martingales that quantify the accumulated evidence against a composite null hypothesis at any stopping time. This paper…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
We study a continuous-time financial market with continuous price processes under model uncertainty, modeled via a family $\mathcal{P}$ of possible physical measures. A robust notion ${\rm NA}_{1}(\mathcal{P})$ of no-arbitrage of the first…
Natural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis…
Randomization tests allow simple and unambiguous tests of null hypotheses, by comparing observed data to a null ensemble in which experimentally-controlled variables are randomly resampled. In behavioral and neuroscience experiments,…
In this paper, we consider testing the martingale difference hypothesis for high-dimensional time series. Our test is built on the sum of squares of the element-wise max-norm of the proposed matrix-valued nonlinear dependence measure at…
There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…
Statistical experiments often seek to identify random variables with the largest population means. This inferential task, known as rank verification, has been well-studied on Gaussian data with equal variances. This work provides the first…
In the paper, the martingales and super-martingales relative to a convex set of equivalent measures are systematically studied. The notion of local regular super-martingale relative to a convex set of equivalent measures is introduced and…
Conditional Monte Carlo refers to sampling from the conditional distribution of a random vector X given the value T(X) = t for a function T(X). Classical conditional Monte Carlo methods were designed for estimating conditional expectations…
Strassen's classical martingale coupling theorem states that two real-valued random variables are ordered in the convex (resp.\ increasing convex) stochastic order if and only if they admit a martingale (resp.\ submartingale) coupling. By…
We show the existence of superprocesses in a random medium with location dependent branching. Technically, we make use of a duality relation to establish the uniqueness of the martingale problem and to obtain the moment formulas.
We consider the conditional randomization test as a way to account for covariate imbalance in randomized experiments. The test accounts for covariate imbalance by comparing the observed test statistic to the null distribution of the test…
Accurately determining the outcome of an election is a complex task with many potential sources of error, ranging from software glitches in voting machines to procedural lapses to outright fraud. Risk-limiting audits (RLA) are statistically…
In this paper we present a test for the maximal rank of the matrix-valued volatility process in the continuous Ito semimartingale framework. Our idea is based upon a random perturbation of the original high frequency observations of an Ito…
Hoeffding has shown that tail bounds on the distribution for sampling from a finite population with replacement also apply to the corresponding cases of sampling without replacement. (A special case of this result is that binomial tail…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
The notion of expectiles, originally introduced in the context of testing for homoscedasticity and conditional symmetry of the error distribution in linear regression, induces a law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure that has…
Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…
Many testing problems are readily amenable to randomised tests such as those employing data splitting. However despite their usefulness in principle, randomised tests have obvious drawbacks. Firstly, two analyses of the same dataset may…