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We propose a new importance sampling framework for the estimation and analysis of Sobol' indices. We focus on the estimation of the conditional second-moment quantity underlying these indices, which is the most challenging term to estimate.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Haythem Boucharif , Jérôme Morio , Paul Rochet

Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest. One of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-21 Pierre Etoré , Clémentine Prieur , Dang Khoi Pham , Long Li

Sensitivity analysis of a numerical model, for instance simulating physical phenomena, is useful to quantify the influence of the inputs on the model responses. This paper proposes a new sensitivity index, based upon the modification of the…

As the use of complex machine learning models continues to grow, so does the need for reliable explainability methods. One of the most popular methods for model explainability is based on Shapley values. There are two most commonly used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-18 Ilya Rozenfeld

This work introduces the use of multivariate global sensitivity analysis for assessing the impact of uncertain electric machine design parameters on efficiency maps and profiles. Contrary to the common approach of applying variance-based…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Aylar Partovizadeh , Sebastian Schöps , Dimitrios Loukrezis

Feature selection is one of the most relevant processes in any methodology for creating a statistical learning model. Usually, existing algorithms establish some criterion to select the most influential variables, discarding those that do…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-10 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén

Spectroscopy infers the internal structure of physical systems by measuring their response to perturbations. We apply this principle to neural networks: perturbing the data distribution by upweighting a token $y$ in context $x$, we measure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Andrew Gordon , Garrett Baker , George Wang , William Snell , Stan van Wingerden , Daniel Murfet

In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter sensitivity in models of complex dynamical systems through the lens of information geometry. We calculate the sensitivity of model behavior to variations in parameters. In most cases,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-17 Benjamin L. Francis , Mark K. Transtrum

Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Majid Mohammadi , Krikamol Muandet , Ilaria Tiddi , Annette Ten Teije , Siu Lun Chau

To better understand the behavior of image classifiers, it is useful to visualize the contribution of individual pixels to the model prediction. In this study, we propose a method, MoXI ($\textbf{Mo}$del e$\textbf{X}$planation by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-16 Kosuke Sumiyasu , Kazuhiko Kawamoto , Hiroshi Kera

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Christiane Goergen , Manuele Leonelli

Sensitivity analysis helps identify which model inputs convey the most uncertainty to the model output. One of the most authoritative measures in global sensitivity analysis is the Sobol' total-order index, which can be computed with…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-30 Arnald Puy , William Becker , Samuele Lo Piano , Andrea Saltelli

Shapley value is a concept from game theory. Recently, it has been used for explaining complex models produced by machine learning techniques. Although the mathematical definition of Shapley value is straight-forward, the implication of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Sisi Ma , Roshan Tourani

Effect size indices are useful tools in study design and reporting because they are unitless measures of association strength that do not depend on sample size. Existing effect size indices are developed for particular parametric models or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Simon Vandekar , Ran Tao , Jeffrey Blume

Shapley value is a popular approach for measuring the influence of individual features. While Shapley feature attribution is built upon desiderata from game theory, some of its constraints may be less natural in certain machine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Yongchan Kwon , James Zou

We propose probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI), a novel probabilistic framework to model and infer sufficient statistics of feature attributions in flexible predictive models, via latent random variables whose mean recovers Shapley…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Mert Ketenci , Iñigo Urteaga , Victor Alfonso Rodriguez , Noémie Elhadad , Adler Perotte

Integrating advanced communication protocols in production has accelerated the adoption of data-driven predictive quality methods, notably machine learning (ML) models. However, ML models in image classification often face significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Lukas Bahr , Lucas Poßner , Konstantin Weise , Sophie Gröger , Rüdiger Daub

Integrated gradients are widely employed to evaluate the contribution of input features in classification models because it satisfies the axioms for attribution of prediction. This method, however, requires an appropriate baseline for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-28 Kazuki Tachikawa , Yuji Kawai , Jihoon Park , Minoru Asada

We propose a variant of the Shapley value, the group Shapley value, to interpret counterfactual simulations in structural economic models by quantifying the importance of different components. Our framework compares two sets of parameters,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-10 Yongchan Kwon , Sokbae Lee , Guillaume A. Pouliot

We present two analytical formulae for estimating the sensitivity -- namely, the gradient or Jacobian -- at given realizations of an arbitrary-dimensional random vector with respect to its distributional parameters. The first formula…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-14 Pi-Yueh Chuang , Ahmed Attia , Emil Constantinescu