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The aim of this paper is to investigate the rebinding effect, a phenomenon describing a "short-time memory" which can occur when projecting a Markov process onto a smaller state space. For guaranteeing a correct mapping by the Markov State…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Susanne Röhl , Marcus Weber , Konstantin Fackeldey

Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) are Markov chains indexed by a full binary tree representing the evolution of a trait along a population where each individual has two children. Motivated by the functional estimation of the density of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-17 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Jean-François Delmas

This paper studies a scheduling control problem for a single-server multiclass queueing network in heavy traffic, operating in a changing environment. The changing environment is modeled as a finite state Markov process that modulates the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-30 Amarjit Budhiraja , Arka Ghosh , Xin Liu

We prove an averaging principle which asserts convergence of diffusion processes on domains separated by semi-permeable membranes, when diffusion coefficients tend to infinity while the flux through the membranes remains constant. In the…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2019-08-08 Adam Bobrowski , Bogdan Kazmierczak , Markus Kunze

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

We are interested in studying the sensitivity of diffusion processes or their approximations by Markov Chains with respect to a perturbation of the coefficients.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-28 V. Konakov , A. Kozhina , S. Menozzi

We apply the method of differential inequalities for the computation of upper bounds for the rate of convergence to the limiting regime for one specific class of (in)homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. To obtain these estimates, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-13 Alexander Zeifman , Yacov Satin , Alexander Sipin

The main purpose of this article is to establish moderate deviation principles for additive functionals of bifurcating Markov chains. Bifurcating Markov chains are a class of processes which are indexed by a regular binary tree. They can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Gorgui Gackou

By monitoring the sampling of states with different magnetizations in transition matrix procedures a family of accurate and easily implemented techniques are constructed that automatically control the variation of the temperature or energy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-05-24 David Yevick , Yong Hwan Lee

Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2025-12-17 David Roberts , Trevor McCourt , Geremia Massarelli , Jeremy Rothschild , Nahuel Freitas

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communication enables high data rates through large bandwidths and highly directional beamforming, but its sensitivity to blockage and mobility makes reliable beam alignment a central challenge. Limited-probing beam…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-10 Amirhossein Azarbahram , Onel L. A. López

Pathways of diffusion observed in real-world systems often require stochastic processes going beyond first-order Markov models, as implicitly assumed in network theory. In this work, we focus on second-order Markov models, and derive an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-01-03 Renaud Lambiotte , Vsevolod Salnikov , Martin Rosvall

This note details the development of a discrete-time diffusion process to approximate the midnight customer count process in a $M_\textrm{per}/\textrm{Geo}_\textrm{2timeScale}/N$ system. We prove a limit theorem that supports this diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-24 J. G. Dai , Pengyi Shi

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-25 Michael Kalkbrener , Natalie Packham

We present a multivariate central limit theorem for a general class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to solve nonlinear measure-valued equations. These algorithms generate stochastic processes which belong to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-04 Bernard Bercu , Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet

A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Marc Corstanje , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

We propose an infinitesimal dispersion index for Markov counting processes. We show that, under standard moment existence conditions, a process is infinitesimally (over-) equi-dispersed if, and only if, it is simple (compound), i.e. it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Carles Breto , Edward L. Ionides

Donsker Theorem is perhaps the most famous invariance principle result for Markov processes. It states that when properly normalized, a random walk behaves asymptotically like a Brownian motion. This approach can be extended to general…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Eustache Besançon , E Besanç On , Laurent Decreusefond , Pascal Moyal

This paper is concerned with stochastic processes that model multiple (or iterated) scattering in classical mechanical systems of billiard type, defined below. From a given (deterministic) system of billiard type, a random process with…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Renato Feres , Jasmine Ng , Hong-Kun Zhang

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl