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We investigate the parameter estimation and prediction of two forms of the stochastic SIR model driven by small L\'{e}vy noise with time-dependent periodic transmission. We present consistency and rate of convergence results for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-24 Terry Easlick , Wei Sun

This note studies a method for the efficient estimation of a finite number of unknown parameters from linear equations, which are perturbed by Gaussian noise. In case the unknown parameters have only few nonzero entries, the proposed…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-05-27 Liang Dai , Kristiaan Pelckmans

We find analytical solution of pair of stochastic equations with arbitrary forces and multiplicative L\'evy noises in a steady-state nonequilibrium case. This solution shows that L\'evy flights suppress always a quasi-periodical motion…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-01-04 A. I. Olemskoi , S. S. Borysov , I. A. Shuda

Levy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. A typical model is obtained by considering finite dimensional linear stochastic SISO systems driven…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-07 Laszlo Gerencser , Mate Manfay

In this paper, we consider asymptotic behaviors of multiscale multivalued stochastic systems with small noises. First of all, for general, fully coupled systems for multivalued stochastic differential equations of slow and fast motions with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Huijie Qiao

Motivated by recent progress in data assimilation, we develop an algorithm to dynamically learn the parameters of a chaotic system from partial observations. Under reasonable assumptions, we rigorously establish the convergence of this…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2021-08-20 Elizabeth Carlson , Joshua Hudson , Adam Larios , Vincent R. Martinez , Eunice Ng , Jared P. Whitehead

We consider estimation of a deterministic unknown parameter vector in a linear model with non-Gaussian noise. In the Gaussian case, dimensionality reduction via a linear matched filter provides a simple low dimensional sufficient statistic…

Applications · Statistics 2013-11-05 Jakob Vovnoboy , Ami Wiesel

In this paper we explore the effects of instantaneous stochastic resetting on a planar slow-fast dynamical system of the form $\dot{x}=f(x)-y$ and $\dot{y}=\epsilon (x-y)$ with $0<\epsilon \ll 1$. We assume that only the fast variable…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-03-11 Paul C Bressloff

Data assimilation methodologies are designed to incorporate noisy observations of a physical system into an underlying model in order to infer the properties of the state of the system. Filters refer to a class of data assimilation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-08-06 C. E. A. Brett , K. F. Lam , K. J. H. Law , D. S. McCormick , M. R. Scott , A. M. Stuart

This work proposes a general framework for capturing noise-driven transitions in spatially extended non-equilibrium systems and explains the emergence of coherent patterns beyond the instability onset. The framework relies on stochastic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-12-16 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Honghu Liu , James C. McWilliams

We address the problem of recognizing alpha-stable Levy distribution with Levy index close to 2 from experimental data. We are interested in the case when the sample size of available data is not large, thus the power law asymptotics of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-05 Krzysztof Burnecki , Agnieszka Wyłomańska , Aleksei Beletskii , Vsevolod Gonchar , Aleksei Chechkin

Identification of a linear time-invariant dynamical system from partial observations is a fundamental problem in control theory. Particularly challenging are systems exhibiting long-term memory. A natural question is how learn such systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Holden Lee

A distributed adaptive algorithm for estimation of sparse unknown parameters in the presence of nonGaussian noise is proposed in this paper based on normalized least mean fourth (NLMF) criterion. At the first step, local adaptive NLMF…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-12-09 Mojtaba Hajiabadi

A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-04-11 Lewis Mitchell , Georg A. Gottwald

Semilinear hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) find widespread applications in the natural and engineering sciences. However, the traditional Gaussian setting may prove too restrictive, as phenomena in mathematical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Andrea Barth , Andreas Stein

In this study, we explore data assimilation for the Stochastic Camassa-Holm equation through the application of the particle filtering framework. Specifically, our approach integrates adaptive tempering, jittering, and nudging techniques to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Colin John Cotter , Dan Crisan , Maneesh Kumar Singh

The small mass limit of the Langevin equation perturbed by $\alpha$-stable L\'{e}vy noise is considered by rewriting it in the form of slow-fast system, and spliting the fast component into three parts, where $\alpha\in(1,2)$. By exploring…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Qingming Zhao , Wei Wang

This work investigates a three-dimensional slow-fast stochastic system with quadratic nonlinearity and additive noise, inspired by fluid dynamics. The deterministic counterpart exhibits a periodic orbit and a slow manifold. We demonstrate…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Jeroen S. W. Lamb , Christian J. Pangerl , Martin Rasmussen

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

This paper considers a class of nonautonomous slow-fast stochastic partial differential equations driven by $\alpha$-stable processes for $\alpha\in (1,2)$. By introducing the evolution system of measures, we establish an averaging…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-11 Yueling Li , Xiaobin Sun , Zijuan Wang , Yingchao Xie