English
Related papers

Related papers: Random time step probabilistic methods for uncerta…

200 papers

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Dingling Yao , Filip Tronarp , Nathanael Bosch

Most problems in uncertainty quantification, despite its ubiquitousness in scientific computing, applied mathematics and data science, remain formidable on a classical computer. For uncertainties that arise in partial differential equations…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-09-29 Francois Golse , Shi Jin , Nana Liu

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations assign a posterior measure to the solution of an initial value problem. The joint covariance of this distribution provides an estimate of the (global) approximation error. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Nathanael Bosch , Philipp Hennig , Filip Tronarp

We address the problem of Bayesian inference for parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models based on observational data. Conventional approaches in this setting typically rely on numerical solvers such as the Euler or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Shoji Toyota , Yuto Miyatake

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

A statistical learning approach for parametric PDEs related to Uncertainty Quantification is derived. The method is based on the minimization of an empirical risk on a selected model class and it is shown to be applicable to a broad range…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Martin Eigel , Reinhold Schneider , Philipp Trunschke , Sebastian Wolf

The use of numerical simulation for prediction of characteristics of chaotic dynamical systems inherently involves unpredictable processes. In this work, we develop a model for the expected error in the simulation of ergodic, chaotic ODE…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-10-17 Cory Frontin , David Darmofal

Parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) plays a fundamental role in the analysis of dynamical systems. Generally lacking closed-form solutions, ODEs are traditionally approximated using deterministic solvers.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-30 Mohan Wu , Martin Lysy

This paper contains an error analysis of two randomized explicit Runge-Kutta schemes for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with time-irregular coefficient functions. In particular, the methods are applicable to ODEs of Carath\'eodory…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-07-13 Raphael Kruse , Yue Wu

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer powerful and accessible mathematical models for capturing both deterministic and probabilistic aspects of dynamic behavior across a wide range of physical, financial, and social systems.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Paromita Banerjee , Anirban Mondal

A method of calculating probability values from a system of marginal constraints is presented. Previous systems for finding the probability of a single attribute have either made an independence assumption concerning the evidence or have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 J. W. Miller , R. M. Goodman

This paper develops meshless methods for probabilistically describing discretisation error in the numerical solution of partial differential equations. This construction enables the solution of Bayesian inverse problems while accounting for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-20 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Probabilistic solvers provide a flexible and efficient framework for simulation, uncertainty quantification, and inference in dynamical systems. However, like standard solvers, they suffer performance penalties for certain stiff systems,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Nathanael Bosch , Philipp Hennig , Filip Tronarp

We propose algorithms for solving high-dimensional Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) that combine a probabilistic interpretation of PDEs, through Feynman-Kac representation, with sparse interpolation. Monte-Carlo methods and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Marie Billaud-Friess , Arthur Macherey , Anthony Nouy , Clémentine Prieur

Accurate estimation of parameters is paramount in developing high-fidelity models for complex dynamical systems. Model-based optimal experiment design (OED) approaches enable systematic design of dynamic experiments to generate input-output…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-12 Ali Mesbah , Stefan Streif

Stochastic differential equations have proved to be a valuable governing framework for many real-world systems which exhibit ``noise'' or randomness in their evolution. One quality of interest in such systems is the shape of their…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-04 David Sabin-Miller , Daniel M. Abrams

Implicit methods for the numerical solution of initial-value problems may admit multiple solutions at any given time step. Accordingly, their nonlinear solvers may converge to any of these solutions. Below a critical timestep, exactly one…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-20 K. R. Green , G. W. Patrick , R. J. Spiteri

An algorithm is proposed to solve robust control problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients, based on the so-called MG/OPT framework. The levels in this MG/OPT hierarchy correspond to discretization…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Andreas Van Barel , Stefan Vandewalle