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A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-19 François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates , Mark Girolami , Michael A. Osborne , Dino Sejdinovic

Non-uniform sampling arises when an experimenter does not have full control over the sampling characteristics of the process under investigation. Moreover, it is introduced intentionally in algorithms such as Bayesian optimization and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-03 Stijn de Waele

Inferring the parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from noisy observations is an important problem in many scientific fields. Currently, most parameter estimation methods that bypass numerical integration tend to rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Mingwei Xu , Samuel W. K. Wong , Peijun Sang

Differential equations in general and neural ODEs in particular are an essential technique in continuous-time system identification. While many deterministic learning algorithms have been designed based on numerical integration via the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Lenart Treven , Philippe Wenk , Florian Dörfler , Andreas Krause

A first-order, Monte Carlo ensemble method has been recently introduced for solving parabolic equations with random coefficients in [26], which is a natural synthesis of the ensemble-based, Monte Carlo sampling algorithm and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Yan Luo , Zhu Wang

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-16 Juho Timonen , Nikolas Siccha , Ben Bales , Harri Lähdesmäki , Aki Vehtari

In this study, we introduce a refined method for ascertaining error estimations in numerical simulations of dynamical systems via an innovative application of composition techniques. Our approach involves a dual application of a basic…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Ahmad Deeb , Denys Dutykh

Parareal is a well-studied algorithm for numerically integrating systems of time-dependent differential equations by parallelising the temporal domain. Given approximate initial values at each temporal sub-interval, the algorithm locates a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Kamran Pentland , Massimiliano Tamborrino , D. Samaddar , L. C. Appel

We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-13 Philipp Hennig , Søren Hauberg

Stochastic interpolants offer a robust framework for continuously transforming samples between arbitrary data distributions, holding significant promise for generative modeling. Despite their potential, rigorous finite-time convergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Yuhao Liu , Rui Hu , Yu Chen , Longbo Huang

This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Approximating integrals is a fundamental task in probability theory and statistical inference, and their applied fields of signal processing, and Bayesian learning, as soon as expectations over probability distributions must be computed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Solal Martin , Emilie Chouzenoux , Victor Elvira

Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…

We present a quantum algorithm based on repeated measurement to solve initial-value problems for nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which may be generated from partial differential equations in plasma physics. We map a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-30 Joseph Andress , Alexander Engel , Yuan Shi , Scott Parker

The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Radislav Vaisman , Robert Salomone , Dirk P. Kroese

Computer simulations of differential equations require a time discretization, which inhibits to identify the exact solution with certainty. Probabilistic simulations take this into account via uncertainty quantification. The construction of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-15 Philipp Frank , Torsten A. Enßlin

A comprehensive convergence and stability analysis of some probabilistic numerical methods designed to solve Cauchy-type inverse problems is performed in this study. Such inverse problems aim at solving an elliptic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Iulian Cîmpean , Andreea Grecu , Liviu Marin

The interpretation of numerical methods, such as finite difference methods for differential equations, as point estimators allows for formal statistical quantification of the error due to discretisation in the numerical context. Competing…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Junyang Wang , Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates

Discrete numerical methods with finite time-steps represent a practical technique to solve initial-value problems involving nonlinear differential equations. These methods seem particularly useful to the study of chaos since no analytical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-01-01 Lun-Shin Yao

We introduce a family of implicit probabilistic integrators for initial value problems (IVPs), taking as a starting point the multistep Adams-Moulton method. The implicit construction allows for dynamic feedback from the forthcoming…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-19 Onur Teymur , Han Cheng Lie , Tim Sullivan , Ben Calderhead