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We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-05 Haolin Ruan , Zhi Chen , Chin Pang Ho

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-22 Sen Hu , Adrian O'Hagan

Actuaries use predictive modeling techniques to assess the loss cost on a contract as a function of observable risk characteristics. State-of-the-art statistical and machine learning methods are not well equipped to handle hierarchically…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-01 Bavo D. C. Campo , Katrien Antonio

This study considers an optimal reinsurance, investment, and dividend strategy control problem for insurance companies in a regulated Markov regime-switching environment, intending to maximize long-run average reward. Unlike existing single…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-18 Lingjia Zeng , Manman Li

A new distribution on (0, 1), generalized Log-Lindley distribution, is proposed by extending the Log-Lindley distribution. This new distribution is shown to be a weighted Log-Lindley distribution. Important probabilistic and statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-07 S. Chakraborty , S. H. Ong , C. M. Ng

This paper investigates a hybrid stochastic differential reinsurance and investment game between one reinsurer and two insurers, including a stochastic Stackelberg differential subgame and a non-zero-sum stochastic differential subgame. The…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-10-23 Yanfei Bai , Zhongbao Zhou , Helu Xiao , Rui Gao , Feimin Zhong

This paper considers optimal control problem of a large insurance company under a fixed insolvency probability. The company controls proportional reinsurance rate, dividend pay-outs and investing process to maximize the expected present…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-06-01 Zongxia Liang , Jianping Huang

In this paper we investigate Gaussian risk models which include financial elements such as inflation and interest rates. For some general models for inflation and interest rates, we obtain an asymptotic expansion of the finite-time ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Krzysztof Debicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Lanpeng Ji

In this paper we propose a new model for pricing stock and dividend derivatives. We jointly specify dynamics for the stock price and the dividend rate such that the stock price is positive and the dividend rate non-negative. In its simplest…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-27 Sander Willems

We present a design and financial analysis of a health insurance based on an SIH-type epidemic model. Specifically, we first construct the model in a continuous form, study its dynamical properties, and formulate the financial quantities…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Jonathan Hoseana , Felivia Kusnadi , Gracia Stephanie , Levana Loanardo , Catherine Wijaya

In this paper a quantitative analysis of the ruin probability in finite time of discrete risk process with proportional reinsurance and investment of finance surplus is focused on. It is assumed that the total loss on a unit interval has a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-14 Helena Jasiulewicz , Wojciech Kordecki

Economic models with input-output networks assume that firm or sector (unit) growth is driven by a weighted sum of trade partners' growth and an independently-drawn idiosyncratic shock. I show that the idiosyncratic risk assumption in a…

General Economics · Economics 2022-08-03 Victor Sellemi

We propose a model in which, in exchange to the payment of a fixed transaction cost, an insurance company can choose the retention level as well as the time at which subscribing a perpetual reinsurance contract. The surplus process of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Maria-Laura Torrente

We introduce a new set of consistent measures of risks, in terms of the semi-invariants of pdf's, such that the centered moments and the cumulants of the portfolio distribution of returns that put more emphasis on the tail the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

In this paper we develop the Gerber-Shiu theory for the classic and dual discrete risk processes in a Markovian (regime switching) environment. In particular, by expressing the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of potential measures of an…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-02 Zbigniew Palmowski , Lewis Ramsden , Apostolos D. Papaioannou

This chapter presents a review of the dividend discount models starting from the basic models (Williams 1938, Gordon and Shapiro 1956) to more recent and complex models (Ghezzi and Piccardi 2003, Barbu et al. 2017, D'Amico and De Blasis…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-03 Guglielmo D'Amico , Riccardo De Blasis

We study stochastic ordering of system lifetimes with dependent and heterogeneous components whose marginal distributions are obtained through transformations of a common baseline. The dependence structure is modeled via Archimedean…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-30 Idir Arab , Milto Hadjikyriakou , Paulo Eduardo Oliveira

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of $n$ independent random variables. Our approach is based on a family of candidate probabilities that we shall call a model and which is chosen to either contain the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Yannick Baraud

Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-23 Magda Schiegl

This paper studies proportional risk sharing at claim occurrence time in community-based insurance. Each participant is modeled by an individual Cram\'er-Lundberg surplus process, and, whenever a claim is reported within the pool, its cost…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-01 Michel Denuit , José Miguel Flores-Contró , Christian Y. Robert