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Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Tengjie Zheng , Haipeng Chen , Lin Cheng , Shengping Gong , Xu Huang

A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change over continuous time. Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks is a general compact representation language for multi-component continuous-time processes. However, exact…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Tal El-Hay , Nir Friedman , Raz Kupferman

Quasi-periodicity refers to a pattern in a function where it appears periodic but has evolving amplitudes over time. This is often the case in practical settings such as the modeling of case counts of infectious disease or the carbon…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-18 Ziang Zhang , Patrick Brown , Jamie Stafford

We present a scalable Gaussian process model for identifying and characterizing smooth multidimensional changepoints, and automatically learning changes in expressive covariance structure. We use Random Kitchen Sink features to flexibly…

Locally weighted regression was created as a nonparametric learning method that is computationally efficient, can learn from very large amounts of data and add data incrementally. An interesting feature of locally weighted regression is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-02-05 Franziska Meier , Philipp Hennig , Stefan Schaal

Accurate estimation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is crucial for understanding climate change and its impacts on public health, as aerosols are a measure of air quality conditions. AOD is usually retrieved from satellite imagery at coarse…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-11 Fernando Rodriguez Avellaneda , Paula Moraga

We propose to approximate the conditional expectation of a spatial random variable given its nearest-neighbour observations by an additive function. The setting is meaningful in practice and requires no unilateral ordering. It is capable of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-28 Zudi Lu , Arvid Lundervold , Dag Tjøstheim , Qiwei Yao

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

Additive-interactive regression has recently been shown to offer attractive minimax error rates over traditional nonparametric multivariate regression in a wide variety of settings, including cases where the predictor count is much larger…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-26 Shaan Qamar , Surya T. Tokdar

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

A multivariate distribution can be described by a triangular transport map from the target distribution to a simple reference distribution. We propose Bayesian nonparametric inference on the transport map by modeling its components using…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Matthias Katzfuss , Florian Schäfer

Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Fabian Mies , Ansgar Steland

In spatial statistics, it is often assumed that the spatial field of interest is stationary and its covariance has a simple parametric form, but these assumptions are not appropriate in many applications. Given replicate observations of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-14 Brian Kidd , Matthias Katzfuss

This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-15 Francesco Zanetta , Daniele Nerini , Matteo Buzzi , Henry Moss

Autonomous Land Vehicles (ALV) shall efficiently recognize the ground in unknown environments. A novel $\mathcal{GP}$-based method is proposed for the ground segmentation task in rough driving scenarios. A non-stationary covariance function…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Pouria Mehrabi , Hamid D. Taghirad

We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-25 Oluwole Oyebamiji , Christopher Nemeth , Paula Harrison , Rob Dunford , George Cojocaru

Spatial prediction problems often use Gaussian process models, which can be computationally burdensome in high dimensions. Specification of an appropriate covariance function for the model can be challenging when complex non-stationarities…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Qi Wang , Paul A. Parker , Robert B. Lund

We consider the problem of detecting and quantifying the periodic component of a function given noise-corrupted observations of a limited number of input/output tuples. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression which provides a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-22 Nicolas Durrande , James Hensman , Magnus Rattray , Neil D. Lawrence

With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last decade, already…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-14 Lu Zhang , Abhirup Datta , Sudipto Banerjee