Related papers: On the Individual Surrogate Paradox

When the primary outcome is hard to collect, surrogate endpoint is typically used as a substitute. However, even when the treatment has a positive average causal effect (ACE) on the surrogate endpoint, which also has a positive ACE on the…

Surrogate markers are often used in clinical trials to evaluate treatment effects when primary outcomes are costly, invasive, or take a long time to observe. However, reliance on surrogates can lead to the surrogate paradox, where a…

Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach…

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…

In many decision-making problems, the primary outcome is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to observe, so individualized treatment rules (ITRs) may be instead learned from surrogate endpoints. However, a surrogate that is highly…

Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the…

The primary benefit of identifying a valid surrogate marker is the ability to use it in a future trial to test for a treatment effect with shorter follow-up time or less cost. However, previous work has demonstrated potential heterogeneity…

Surrogate markers offer the potential to reduce the burden of data collection by replacing costly or invasive primary outcomes with more accessible measurements, provided that they can faithfully indicate the effectiveness of a treatment.…

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually use a surrogate marker to test for a treatment effect in a…

Given the long follow-up periods that are often required for treatment or intervention studies, the potential to use surrogate markers to decrease the required follow-up time is a very attractive goal. However, previous studies have shown…

In many experimental and observational studies, the outcome of interest is often difficult or expensive to observe, reducing effective sample sizes for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) even when identifiable. We study how…

In many real-world causal inference applications, the primary outcomes (labels) are often partially missing, especially if they are expensive or difficult to collect. If the missingness depends on covariates (i.e., missingness is not…

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

A surrogate endpoint S in a clinical trial is an outcome that may be measured earlier or more easily than the true outcome of interest T. In this work, we extend causal inference approaches to validate such a surrogate using potential…

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their…

When direct measurement of a clinically relevant primary endpoint in a clinical trial is infeasible, a surrogate endpoint may be used instead to infer treatment effects. Trial-level surrogates predict the average treatment effect on the…

Motivated by increasing pressure for decision makers to shorten the time required to evaluate the efficacy of a treatment such that treatments deemed safe and effective can be made publicly available, there has been substantial recent…

Surrogate markers are most commonly studied within the context of randomized clinical trials. However, the need for alternative outcomes extends beyond these settings and may be more pronounced in real-world public health and social science…