Related papers: On the Individual Surrogate Paradox

For many rare diseases with no approved preventive interventions, promising interventions exist, yet it has been difficult to conduct a pivotal phase 3 trial that could provide direct evidence demonstrating a beneficial effect on the target…

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate endpoint when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate endpoints in a…

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health…

Identification of causal effects is one of the most fundamental tasks of causal inference. We consider an identifiability problem where some experimental and observational data are available but neither data alone is sufficient for the…

In meta-analytic modeling, the functional relationship between a primary and surrogate endpoint is estimated using summary data from a set of completed clinical trials. Parameters in the meta-analytic model are used to assess the quality of…

Learning the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) is essential for personalized decision-making, yet causal inference has traditionally focused on aggregated treatment effects. While integrating conformal prediction with causal inference can…

The call for patient-focused drug development is loud and clear, as expressed in the 21st Century Cures Act and in recent guidelines and initiatives of regulatory agencies. Among the factors contributing to modernized drug development and…

There is a growing literature on finding so-called optimal treatment rules, which are rules by which to assign treatment to individuals based on an individual's characteristics, such that a desired outcome is maximized. A related goal…

The development of statistical methods to evaluate surrogate markers is an active area of research. In many clinical settings, the surrogate marker is not simply a single measurement but is instead a longitudinal trajectory of measurements…

Evaluating treatment effects is critical in clinical trials but sometimes involves lengthy, invasive, or costly follow-up procedures. In these cases, surrogate markers, which provide intermediate measures of the long-term treatment effect,…

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

Mediation analysis is a useful tool to evaluate surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We propose a novel method, the M-survival learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect treatment effects in the presence of censored outcomes. The…

In both observational studies and randomized trials, post-treatment events such as dropout, nonadherence, and truncation by death occur frequently. In some studies, conditioning on post-treatment variables is a deliberate strategy to…

We consider identification and inference for the average treatment effect and heterogeneous treatment effect conditional on observable covariates in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Since point identification of these treatment…

Surrogate endpoints are often used in place of expensive, delayed, or rare true endpoints in clinical trials. However, regulatory authorities require thorough evaluation to accept these surrogate endpoints as reliable substitutes. One…

We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while…

The method of surrogate data provides a framework for testing observed data against a hierarchy of alternative hypotheses. The aim of applying this method is to exclude the possibility that the data are consistent with simple linear…

Principal stratification is a causal framework to analyze randomized experiments with a post-treatment variable between the treatment and endpoint variables. Because the principal strata defined by the potential outcomes of the…

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…

Surrogate endpoints are very important in regulatory decision-making in healthcare, in particular if they can be measured early compared to the long-term final clinical outcome and act as good predictors of clinical benefit. Bivariate…