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We propose the deep demixing (DDmix) model, a graph autoencoder that can reconstruct epidemics evolving over networks from partial or aggregated temporal information. Assuming knowledge of the network topology but not of the epidemic model,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Boning Li , Gojko Čutura , Ananthram Swami , Santiago Segarra

Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-07-30 Anirban Dasgupta , Srijan Sengupta

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-05-31 Jason Hindes , Ira B. Schwartz

Many real world networks are characterized by adaptive changes in their topology depending on the dynamic state of their nodes. Here we study epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network, where susceptibles are able to avoid contact with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Thilo Gross , Carlos Dommar D'Lima , Bernd Blasius

Adaptively monitoring the states of nodes in a large complex network is of interest in domains such as national security, public health, and energy grid management. Here, we present an information theoretic adaptive tracking and sampling…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-07-12 Patrick L Harrington , Alfred O. Hero

To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-07-03 Saswata Das , Mohammad Hossein Samaei , Caterina Scoglio

The outcome of an epidemic is closely related to the network of interactions between the individuals. Likewise, protein functions depend on the 3D arrangement of their residues and on the underlying energetic interaction network. Borrowing…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-19 Mattia Miotto , Lorenzo Di Rienzo , Pietro Corsi , Giancarlo Ruocco , Domenico Raimondo , Edoardo Milanetti

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-08 Bnaya Gross , Shlomo Havlin

In this letter, we investigate the detailed epidemic spreading process in scale-free networks with links' weights that denote familiarity between two individuals and find that spreading velocity reaches a peak quickly then decays in a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Gang Yan , Tao Zhou , Jie Wang , Zhong-Qian Fu , Bing-Hong Wang

Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-27 Ashish R. Hota , Jaydeep Godbole , Philip E Paré

Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-24 Willem Esterhuizen , Tim Aschenbruck , Jean Lévine , Stefan Streif

We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Cristopher Moore , M. E. J. Newman

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari

Disease awareness in infection dynamics can be modeled with adaptive contact networks whose rewiring rules reflect the attempt by susceptibles to avoid infectious contacts. Simulations of this type of models show an active phase with…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2012-12-06 Stefan Wieland , Tomas Aquino , Ana Nunes

We present a modified \emph{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model on complex networks, small-world and scale-free, to study epidemic spreading with the effect of time delay which is introduced to the infected phase. Considering the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Xin-Jian Xu , Hai-Ou Peng , Xiao-Mei Wang , Ying-Hai Wang

We consider epidemic extinction in finite networks with broad variation in local connectivity. Generalizing the theory of large fluctuations to random networks with a given degree distribution, we are able to predict the most probable, or…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-07-07 Jason Hindes , Ira B. Schwartz

The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be one of the most disruptive public health emergencies in recent memory. Among non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown measures are some of the most common tools employed by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Carl Corcoran , John Michael Clark

Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-04-25 Luis Enrique Correa Rocha , Adeline Decuyper , Vincent D Blondel

Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-14 Yutaka Okabe , Akira Shudo

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-04-09 Sebastian Risau-Gusman