Related papers: Computing the quality of the Laplace approximation

We consider in this paper the problem of sampling a high-dimensional probability distribution $\pi$ having a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$, known up to a normalization constant $x \mapsto \pi(x)=…

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Uncertainty estimation is essential for robust decision-making in the presence of ambiguous or out-of-distribution inputs. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are classical kernel-based models that offer principled uncertainty quantification and…

We provide full theoretical guarantees for the convergence behaviour of diffusion-based generative models under the assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions while our approximating class of functions used for score estimation…

We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive…

This paper introduces a new technique for quantifying the approximation error of a broad class of probabilistic inference programs, including ones based on both variational and Monte Carlo approaches. The key idea is to derive a subjective…

In Statistics, log-concave density estimation is a central problem within the field of nonparametric inference under shape constraints. Despite great progress in recent years on the statistical theory of the canonical estimator, namely the…

Bayesian sequence prediction is a simple technique for predicting future symbols sampled from an unknown measure on infinite sequences over a countable alphabet. While strong bounds on the expected cumulative error are known, there are only…

We study the problem of maximum likelihood estimation of densities that are log-concave and lie in the graphical model corresponding to a given undirected graph $G$. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is the product of the…

Solving inverse problems using Bayesian methods can become prohibitively expensive when likelihood evaluations involve complex and large scale numerical models. A common approach to circumvent this issue is to approximate the forward model…

In a Bayesian inverse problem setting, the solution consists of a posterior measure obtained by combining prior belief, information about the forward operator, and noisy observational data. This measure is most often given in terms of a…

In this paper, we revisit the recently established theoretical guarantees for the convergence of the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm of sampling from a smooth and (strongly) log-concave density. We improve the existing results when the…

We propose an algorithm to sample from composite log-concave distributions over $\mathbb{R}^d$, i.e., densities of the form $\pi\propto e^{-f-g}$, assuming access to gradient evaluations of $f$ and a restricted Gaussian oracle (RGO) for…

Let $f(\theta, X_1),$ $ \dots,$ $ f(\theta, X_n)$ be a sequence of random elements, where $f$ is a fixed scalar function, $X_1, \dots, X_n$ are independent random variables (data), and $\theta$ is a random parameter distributed according to…

This paper deals with the Gaussian process based approximation of a code which can be run at different levels of accuracy. This method, which is a particular case of co-kriging, allows us to improve a surrogate model of a complex computer…

Laplace-type results characterize the limit of sequence of measures $(\pi_\varepsilon)_{\varepsilon >0}$ with density w.r.t the Lebesgue measure $(\mathrm{d} \pi_\varepsilon / \mathrm{d} \mathrm{Leb})(x) \propto \exp[-U(x)/\varepsilon]$…

We propose a new approach to deriving quantitative mean field approximations for any probability measure $P$ on $\mathbb{R}^n$ with density proportional to $e^{f(x)}$, for $f$ strongly concave. We bound the mean field approximation for the…

We study the problem of discrete distribution estimation in KL divergence and provide concentration bounds for the Laplace estimator. We show that the deviation from mean scales as $\sqrt{k}/n$ when $n \ge k$, improving upon the best prior…

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

This paper concerns algorithms that give correct answers with (asymptotic) density $1$. A dense description of a function $g : \omega \to \omega$ is a partial function $f$ on $\omega$ such that $\left\{n : f(n) = g(n)\right\}$ has density…