Related papers: Computing the quality of the Laplace approximation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which are applicable when the likelihood is difficult or impossible to calculate, are an active topic of current research. Most current ABC algorithms directly approximate the posterior…

The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…

The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…

In this short note we study how well a Gaussian distribution can be approximated by distributions supported on $[-a,a]$. Perhaps, the natural conjecture is that for large $a$ the almost optimal choice is given by truncating the Gaussian to…

Statistical applications often involve the calculation of intractable multidimensional integrals. The Laplace formula is widely used to approximate such integrals. However, in high-dimensional or small sample size problems, the shape of the…

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

We consider the problem of minimizing a continuous function f over a compact set K. We analyze a hierarchy of upper bounds proposed by Lasserre in [SIAM J. Optim. 21(3) (2011), pp. 864--885], obtained by searching for an optimal probability…

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems provides a rigorous framework for the incorporation and quantification of uncertainties in measurements, parameters and models. We are interested in designing numerical methods which are robust…

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of…

Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The…

In this paper we develop tools for studying limit theorems by means of convexity. We establish bounds for the discrepancy in total variation between probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ such that $\nu$ is log-concave with respect to $\mu$.…

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Laplace approximations are popular techniques for endowing deep networks with epistemic uncertainty estimates as they can be applied without altering the predictions of the trained network, and they scale to large models and datasets. While…

Complex models used to describe biological processes in epidemiology and ecology often have computationally intractable or expensive likelihoods. This poses significant challenges in terms of Bayesian inference but more significantly in the…

While learning the maximum likelihood value of parameters of an undirected graphical model is hard, modelling the posterior distribution over parameters given data is harder. Yet, undirected models are ubiquitous in computer vision and text…

We study high-dimensional Laplace-type integrals $I(\lambda):=(\lambda/2\pi)^{d/2}\int_{\mathbb R^d} g(x)e^{-\lambda f(x)}dx$ in the regime where both $d$ and $\lambda$ are large. Existing rigorous Laplace-expansion results in growing…

For conforming finite element approximations of the Laplacian eigenfunctions, a fully computable guaranteed error bound in the $L^2$ norm sense is proposed. The bound is based on the a priori error estimate for the Galerkin projection of…

Laplace approximations are among the simplest and most practical methods for approximate Bayesian inference in neural networks, yet their Euclidean formulation struggles with the highly anisotropic, curved loss surfaces and large symmetry…