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We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…
A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semi-supervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data such as counts of battle deaths over time indicate latent processes of interest such as…
This work deals with the analysis of longitudinal ordinal responses. The novelty of the proposed approach is in modeling simultaneously the temporal dynamics of a latent trait of interest, measured via the observed ordinal responses, and…
Information seeking process is an important topic in information seeking behavior research. Both qualitative and empirical methods have been adopted in analyzing information seeking processes, with major focus on uncovering the latent…
The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…
Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide useful tools for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing the topology of environments such as road networks…
Dynamic modeling of longitudinal networks has been an increasingly important topic in applied research. While longitudinal network data commonly exhibit dramatic changes in its structures, existing methods have largely focused on modeling…
In the frame of designing a knowledge discovery system, we have developed stochastic models based on high-order hidden Markov models. These models are capable to map sequences of data into a Markov chain in which the transitions between the…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely…
The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state…
Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely used by scientists to model stochastic systems: the underlying process is a discrete Markov chain and the observations are noisy realizations of the underlying process. Determining the number of…
There are many situations in which it would be beneficial for a robot to have predictive abilities similar to those of rational humans. Some of these situations include collaborative robots, robots in adversarial situations, and for dynamic…
This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…
Recent studies have proposed that one can summarize brain activity into dynamics among a relatively small number of hidden states and that such an approach is a promising tool for revealing brain function. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular tools for analysing animal behaviour based on movement, acceleration and other sensor data. In particular, these models allow to infer how the animal's decision-making process interacts with internal…