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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…
The paper investigates the problems of quickest change detection in Markov models and hidden Markov models (HMMs). Sequential observations are taken from a (hidden) Markov model. At some unknown time, an event occurs in the system and…
Automatic estimation of piano fingering is important for understanding the computational process of music performance and applicable to performance assistance and education systems. While a natural way to formulate the quality of fingerings…
Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
The prevalence of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in various applications of statistical signal processing and communications is a testament to the power and flexibility of the model. In this paper, we link the identifiability problem with…
In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous hidden Markov model from aggregate observations. This problem arises when only the population level counts of the number of individuals at each time…
We address the problem of modeling constrained hospital resources in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to inform decision-makers of future demand and assess the societal value of possible interventions. For broad applicability, we…
This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…
This paper describes a framework for the investigation and modeling of human spatial guidance behavior in complex environments. The model is derived from the concept of interaction patterns, which represent the invariances or symmetries…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
Biological systems need to react to stimuli over a broad spectrum of timescales. If and how this ability can emerge without external fine-tuning is a puzzle. We consider here this problem in discrete Markovian systems, where we can leverage…
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to automatic speech recognition for more than 35 years in spite of the fact that a key HMM assumption -- the statistical independence of frames -- is obviously violated by speech…
In this study, we develop an approach to multivariate time series anomaly detection focused on the transformation of multivariate time series to univariate time series. Several transformation techniques involving Fuzzy C-Means (FCM)…
This study proposes a novel approach based on the Ising model for analyzing socio-economic emerging patterns between municipalities by investigating the observed configuration of a network of selected territorial units which are classified…
The Hidden Quantum Markov Model (HQMM) has significant potential for analyzing time-series data and studying stochastic processes in the quantum domain as an upgrading option with potential advantages over classical Markov models. In this…