Related papers: Early warning signal for interior crises in excita…
Ecosystems can undergo sudden shifts to undesirable states, but recent studies with simple single species ecosystems have demonstrated that advance warning can be provided by the slowing down of population dynamics near a tipping point.…
A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called…
The presence of both critical behavior and oscillating patterns in brain dynamics is a very interesting issue. In this paper, we consider a model for a neuron population, where each neuron is modeled by an over-damped rotator. We find that…
Previous studies have shown that rate-induced transitions can occur in pullback attractors of systems subject to "parameter shifts" between two asymptotically steady values of a system parameter. For cases where the attractors limit to…
A generalization of the one-dimensional frustrated quantum XY model is considered in which the inter and intra-chain coupling constants of the two infinite XY (planar rotor) chains have different strengths. The model can describe the…
We investigate the emergence of complex dynamics in a system of coupled dissipative kicked rotors and show that critical transitions can be understood via bifurcations of simple states. We study multistability and bifurcations in the single…
We propose to use the ordinal pattern transition (OPT) entropy measured at sentinel central nodes as a potential predictor of explosive transitions to synchronization in networks of various dynamical systems with increasing complexity. Our…
The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…
We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…
Whether large predictive models merely parrot their training data or produce genuine insight lacks a physical explanation. This work reports a primitive form of intuition that emerges as a metastable phase of learning that critically…
Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts…
Deep learning offers powerful tools for anticipating tipping points in complex systems, yet its potential for detecting flickering (noise-driven switching between coexisting stable states) remains unexplored. Flickering is a hallmark of…
Combustion instabilities are particularly problematic for rocket thrust chambers because of their high energy release rates and their operation close to the structural limits. In the last decades, progress has been made in predicting high…
A function with finite asymptotic limits gives rise to a transition equation between a "past system" and a "future system". This question is analyzed in the case of nonautonomous coercive nonlinear scalar ordinary differential equations…
In a fast scrambling many-body quantum system, information is spread and entanglement is built up on a timescale that grows logarithmically with the system size. This is of fundamental interest in understanding the dynamics of many-body…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
We study the collective behaviour of an ensemble of coupled motile elements whose interactions depend on time and are alternatively attractive or repulsive. The evolution of interactions is driven by individual internal variables with…
The dynamics based on information transfer is proposed as an underlying mechanism for the scale-invariant dynamic critical behavior observed in a variety of systems. We apply the dynamics to the globally-coupled Ising model, which is…