Related papers: Early warning signal for interior crises in excita…

The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…

We develop an early-warning signal for bifurcations of one-dimensional random difference equations with additive bounded noise, based on the asymptotic behaviour of the stationary density near a boundary of its support. We demonstrate the…

Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…

Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…

The idea that information-processing systems operate near criticality to enhance computational performance is supported by scaling signatures in brain activity. However, external signals raise the question of whether this behavior is…

Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…

Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…

In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to slow passage through other generic bifurcations, such as…

Determining critical points of phase transitions from partial data is essential to avoid abrupt system collapses and reducing experimental or computational costs. However, the complex physical systems and phase transition phenomena have…

We consider discrete-time one-dimensional random dynamical systems with bounded noise, which generate an associated set-valued dynamical system. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a discontinuous bifurcation of a minimal…

Real-world complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit…

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…

Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, yet standard early-warning signals such as order flow imbalance and short-term volatility are inherently reactive. We formalise this limitation via a three-regime…

Problems with artificial neural networks originate from their deterministic nature and inevitable prior learnings, resulting in inadequate adaptability against unpredictable, abrupt environmental change. Here we show that a stochastically…

In a Nature article, Scheffer et al. presented a novel data-driven framework to predict critical transitions in complex systems. These transitions, which may stem from failures, degradation, or adversarial actions, have been attributed to…

Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. They have been used to get insights into the dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In…

Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space…

Complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in the…

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents'…