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After Bayes, the oldest Bayesian account of enumerative induction is given by Laplace's so-called rule of succession: if all $n$ observed instances of a phenomenon to date exhibit a given character, the probability that the next instance of…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-07-20 Eric-Jan Wagenmakers , Sandy Zabell , Quentin F. Gronau

In this paper we study a variant of the Malicious Ma\^{i}tre d' problem. This problem, attributed to computer scientist Rob Pike in Peter Winkler's book "Mathematical Puzzles: A Connoisseur's Collection", involves seating diners around a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-01-23 Reed Acton , T. Kyle Petersen , Blake Shirman , Bridget Eileen Tenner

Challenge Theory (Shye & Haber 2015; 2020) has demonstrated that a newly devised challenge index (CI) attributable to every binary choice problem predicts the popularity of the bold option, the one of lower probability to gain a higher…

General Economics · Economics 2020-03-30 Samuel Shye , Ido Haber

Consider the following probability puzzle: A fair coin is flipped n times. For each HT in the resulting sequence, Bob gets a point, and for each HH Alice gets a point. Who is more likely to win? We provide a proof that Bob wins more often…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Simon Segert

Let $p>3$ be a prime and $(\frac{.}{p})$ be the Legendre symbol. For any integer $d$ with $p\nmid d$ and any positive integer $m$, Sun introduced the determinants…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-15 Chen-kai Ren , Xin-qi Luo

Dickson conjectured that a set of polynomials will take on infinitely many simultaneous prime values. Later others, such as Hardy and Littlewood, gave estimates for the number of these primes. In this article we look at this conjecture,…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Chris K. Caldwell

A simple graph more often than not contains adjacent vertices with equal degrees. This in particular holds for all pairs of neighbours in regular graphs, while a lot such pairs can be expected e.g. in many random models. Is there a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-03-31 Jakub Przybyło

In this paper we confirm three conjectures of Z.-W. Sun on determinants. We first show that any odd integer $n>3$ divides the determinant $$\left|(i^2+dj^2)\left(\frac{i^2+dj^2}n\right)\right|_{0\le i,j\le (n-1)/2},$$ where $d$ is any…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Darij Grinberg , Zhi-Wei Sun , Lilu Zhao

Can a probabilistic gambler get arbitrarily rich when all deterministic gamblers fail? We study this problem in the context of algorithmic randomness, introducing a new notion -- almost everywhere computable randomness. A binary sequence…

Logic · Mathematics 2021-12-09 Laurent Bienvenu , Valentino Delle Rose , Tomasz Steifer

The ternary Goldbach conjecture, or three-primes problem, states that every odd number $n$ greater than $5$ can be written as the sum of three primes. The conjecture, posed in 1742, remained unsolved until now, in spite of great progress in…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-15 Harald Andrés Helfgott

By making use of the greatest common divisor's ($gcd$) properties we can highlight some connections between playing billiard inside a unit square and the Fibonacci sequence as well as the Euclidean algorithm. In particular by defining two…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-06-06 Daniel Jaud

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-09-29 G. K. Skinner , G. H. Freeman

I am presenting a first-ever scientific collection of short sayings on probability and statistics expressed by most various men of science, many classics included, from antiquity to Kepler to our time. Quite understandably, the reader will…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2021-07-07 Oscar Sheynin

In this article, I will present a paradox whose purpose is to draw your attention to an important topic in finance, concerning the non-independence of the financial returns (non-ergodic hypothesis). In this paradox, we have two people…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-17 Andrea Berdondini

The ``overlapping-cycles shuffle'' mixes a deck of $n$ cards by moving either the $n$th card or the $(n-k)$th card to the top of the deck, with probability half each. We determine the spectral gap for the location of a single card, which,…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-17 Omer Angel , Yuval Peres , David B. Wilson

The original Parrondo game, denoted as AB3, contains two independent games: A and B. The winning or losing of A and B game is defined by the change of one unit of capital. Game A is a losing game if played continuously, with winning…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-06-22 Ka Wai Cheung , Ho Fai Ma , Degang Wu , Ga Ching Lui , Kwok Yip Szeto

We consider the following game. A deck with $m$ copies of each of $n$ distinct cards is shuffled in a perfectly random way. The Guesser sequentially guesses the card from top to bottom. After each guess, the Guesser is informed whether the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-19 Zipei Nie

The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-03 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

The notion of slicely countably determined (SCD) sets was introduced in 2010 by A.~Avil\'{e}s, V.~Kadets, M.~Mart\'{i}n, J.~Mer\'{i} and V.~Shepelska. We solve in the negative some natural questions about preserving being SCD by the…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Vladimir Kadets , Antonio Pérez , Dirk Werner

Richard Arnold Epstein (1927-2016) published the first edition of "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic" in 1967. He introduced some material on round-robin tournaments (complete oriented graphs) with n labeled vertices in Chapter…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-04-17 Yaakov Malinovsky , John W. Moon