Related papers: A Treatise on Sucker's Bets
In 2000 Allen Schwenk, using a well-known mathematical model of matchplay tournaments in which the probability of one player beating another in a single match is fixed for each pair of players, showed that the classical single-elimination,…
In the chapter "Magic with a Matrix" in \emph{Hexaflexagons and Other Mathematical Diversions} (1988), Martin Gardner describes a delightful "party trick" to fill the squares of a $d$-by-$d$ chessboard with nonnegative integers such that…
In this paper, we examine team ball sports to investigate how the likelihood of weaker teams winning against stronger ones, referred to as underdog achievement, is influenced by inherent randomness factors that affect match outcomes in such…
We look at the Florida Lottery records of winners of prizes worth $600 or more. Some individuals claimed large numbers of prizes. Were they lucky, or up to something? We distinguish the "plausibly lucky" from the "implausibly lucky" by…
This paper is about the following question: How many riffle shuffles mix a deck of card for games such as blackjack and bridge? An object that comes up in answering this question is the descent polynomial associated with pairs of decks,…
Left, Center, Right is a popular dice game. We analyze the game using Markov chain and Monte Carlo methods. We compute the expected game length for two to eight players and determine the probability of winning for each player in the game.…
Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural…
We study the problem of prediction of binary sequences with expert advice in the online setting, which is a classic example of online machine learning. We interpret the binary sequence as the price history of a stock, and view the predictor…
For a positive integer $n$, an $n$-tuple of dice $(A_1,A_2,\dots,A_n)$ is called balanced if $P(A_1<A_2) = P(A_2<A_3) = \cdots = P(A_n<A_1)$ and nontransitive if $P(A_1<A_2), P(A_2<A_3), \dots, P(A_n<A_1)$ are each greater than…
Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in…
We introduce the sequence-set betting game, a generalization of An. A. Muchnik's non-monotonic betting game. Instead of successively partitioning the infinite binary strings by their value of a bit at a chosen position, as in the…
Consider $2k-1$ voters, each of which has a preference ranking between $n$ given alternatives. An alternative $A$ is called a Condorcet winner, if it wins against every other alternative $B$ in majority voting (meaning that for every other…
We introduce a guessing game, permutation Wordle, in which a guesser attempts to recover a hidden permutation in $S_n$. In each round, the guesser guesses a permutation (using information from previous rounds) and is told which entries of…
In a Maker-Breaker game on a graph $G$, Breaker and Maker alternately claim edges of $G$. Maker wins if, after all edges have been claimed, the graph induced by his edges has some desired property. We consider four Maker-Breaker games…
Parrondo's paradox indicates a paradoxical situation in which a winning expectation may occur in sequences of losing games. There are many versions of the original Parrondo's games in the literature, but the games are played by two players…
The Eulerian numbers form a triangular array with many interesting properties. The numbers arise from various combinatorial and probabilistic interpretations, and have been studied in a variety of mathematical contexts. In this article we…
Consider the following experiment: a deck with $m$ copies of $n$ different card types is randomly shuffled, and a guesser attempts to guess the cards sequentially as they are drawn. Each time a guess is made, some amount of "feedback" is…
Anyone who has tried to memorize a one-hundred-digit number can attest that the human brain acquires abstract information slowly. However, following a three-decade increase of results at memory competitions, the best competitors manage to…
I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…
In 1755 Thomas Bayes expressed an interest in the problem of combining repeated measurements of the location of a star. Bayes described a tandem set-up of a ball thrown on a table, followed by repeated throws of a second ball. Bayes' table…