Related papers: A Mathematical Analysis of Technical Analysis
In this work we study a continuous time exponential utility maximization problem in the presence of a linear temporary price impact. More precisely, for the case where the risky asset is given by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion process we…
The aim of this paper is to compare the performances of the optimal strategy under parameters mis-specification and of a technical analysis trading strategy. The setting we consider is that of a stochastic asset price model where the trend…
A pair trade is a portfolio consisting of a long position in one asset and a short position in another, and it is a widely applied investment strategy in the financial industry. Recently, Ekstr\"om, Lindberg and Tysk studied the problem of…
We present a Monte Carlo approach to pairs trading on mean-reverting spreads modeled by L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Specifically, we focus on using a variance gamma driving process, an infinite activity pure jump process to…
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing…
We propose a strategy for automated trading, outline theoretical justification of the profitability of this strategy and overview the hypothetical results in application to currency pairs trading. The proposed methodology relies on the…
We consider the problem of the optimal trading strategy in the presence of linear costs, and with a strict cap on the allowed position in the market. Using Bellman's backward recursion method, we show that the optimal strategy is to switch…
We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures whose underlying asset price follows a multiscale central tendency Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (MCTOU) model. Under this model, we derive the closed-form no-arbitrage prices for the…
We study the problem of dynamically trading a futures contract and its underlying asset under a stochastic basis model. The basis evolution is modeled by a stopped scaled Brownian bridge to account for non-convergence of the basis at…
We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric…
This paper studies the optimal risk-averse timing to sell a risky asset. The investor's risk preference is described by the exponential, power, or log utility. Two stochastic models are considered for the asset price -- the geometric…
This paper studies the timing of trades under mean-reverting price dynamics subject to fixed transaction costs. We solve an optimal double stopping problem to determine the optimal times to enter and subsequently exit the market, when…
We study several optimal stopping problems that arise from trading a mean-reverting price spread over a finite horizon. Modeling the spread by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we analyze three different trading strategies: (i) the long-short…
Motivated by the industry practice of pairs trading, we study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price spread. An optimal double stopping problem is formulated to analyze the timing to start and subsequently…
Utility based methods provide a very general theoretically consistent approach to pricing and hedging of securities in incomplete financial markets. Solving problems in the utility based framework typically involves dynamic programming,…
In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options under a dynamic described by stochastic correlation with random jumps. In particular, we consider a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck covariance model with Levy Background Noise Process driven by…
We investigate a dividend maximization problem under stochastic interest rates with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics. This setup also takes negative rates into account. First a deterministic time is considered, where an explicit separating curve…
Finding Bertram's optimal trading strategy for a pair of cointegrated assets following the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck price difference process can be formulated as an unconstrained convex optimization problem for maximization of expected profit…
This paper addresses the problem of estimating drift parameter of the Ornstein - Uhlenbeck type process, driven by the sum of independent standard and fractional Brownian motions. The maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be consistent…
We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…