Related papers: Reference Class Forecasting for Hong Kong's Major …
We introduce the first automated models for classifying natural language descriptions provided in cost documents called "Bills of Quantities" (BoQs) popular in the infrastructure construction industry, into the International Construction…
Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good…
Classification is an important statistical learning tool. In real application, besides high prediction accuracy, it is often desirable to estimate class conditional probabilities for new observations. For traditional problems where the…
Predicting issue lifetime can help software developers, managers, and stakeholders effectively prioritize work, allocate development resources, and better understand project timelines. Progress had been made on this prediction problem, but…
Time series forecasts are widely used to inform decisions. Human decision-makers interpret these forecasts, incorporate prior experience and uncertainty about future outcomes, and then make a decision. In this paper, we propose a new…
Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…
Link prediction methods are frequently applied in recommender systems, e.g., to suggest citations for academic papers or friends in social networks. However, exposure bias can arise when users are systematically underexposed to certain…
Urban flooding is expected to increase in frequency and severity as a consequence of climate change, causing wide-ranging impacts that include a decrease in urban Quality of Life (QoL). Meanwhile, policymakers must devise adaptation…
Hong Kong' senior geography curriculum has included GIS since the early 2000s. However, GIS in secondary schools does not play a significant role in Hong Kong secondary geography education. Analyzing GIS benefits by literature review, it is…
In model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), Wan et al. (2019) showed conditions under which the environment model could produce the expectation of the next feature vector rather than the full distribution, or a sample thereof, with no…
Motion forecasting for on-road traffic agents presents both a significant challenge and a critical necessity for ensuring safety in autonomous driving systems. In contrast to most existing data-driven approaches that directly predict future…
The key contribution of this paper is to propose a classification into two dimensions of the load forecasting studies to decide which forecasting tools to use in which case. This classification aims to provide a synthetic view of the…
The interest in developing smart cities has increased dramatically in recent years. In this context an intelligent transportation system depicts a major topic. The forecast of traffic flow is indispensable for an efficient intelligent…
Evaluation often aims to reduce the correctness or error characteristics of a system down to a single number, but that always involves trade-offs. Another way of dealing with this is to quote two numbers, such as Recall and Precision, or…
Accurate time-series forecasting is crucial in various scientific and industrial domains, yet deep learning models often struggle to capture long-term dependencies and adapt to data distribution shifts over time. We introduce Future-Guided…
This paper introduces a relative model risk measure of a product priced with a given model, with respect to another reference model for which the market is assumed to be driven. This measure allows comparing products valued with different…
Managing project risk is a key part of the successful implementation of any large project and is widely recognized as a best practice for public agencies to deliver infrastructures. The conventional method of identifying and evaluating…
In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation…
Road networks are among the most essential components of a country's infrastructure. By facilitating the movement and exchange of goods, people, and ideas, they support economic and cultural activity both within and across borders.…
We introduce a novel functional time series methodology for short-term load forecasting. The prediction is performed by means of a weighted average of past daily load segments, the shape of which is similar to the expected shape of the load…