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The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-07-01 Hanti Lin

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Abhik Ghosh , Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu

In this work, we develop a Bayesian framework for solving inverse problems in which the unknown parameter belongs to a space of Radon measures taking values in a separable Hilbert space. The inherent ill-posedness of such problems is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Phuoc-Truong Huynh

Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-09 Yehuda Izhakian , Zur Izhakian

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

By formulating the axioms of quantum mechanics, von Neumann also laid the foundations of a "quantum probability theory". As such, it is regarded a generalization of the "classical probability theory" due to Kolmogorov. Outside of quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-11-17 Maik Reddiger

Strong convergence and convergence in probability were generalized to the setting of a Riesz space with conditional expectation operator, $T$, in [{{\sc Y. Azouzi, W.-C. Kuo, K. Ramdane, B. A. Watson}, {Convergence in Riesz spaces with…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-26 Wen-Chi Kuo , David Rodda , Bruce A. Watson

About forty years ago it was realized by several researchers that the essential features of certain objects of Probability theory, notably Gaussian processes and limit theorems, may be better understood if they are considered in settings…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Evarist Giné , Vladimir Koltchinskii , Wenbo Li , Joel Zinn

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Han Cheng Lie , T. J. Sullivan , Aretha Teckentrup

Prior specification for nonparametric Bayesian inference involves the difficult task of quantifying prior knowledge about a parameter of high, often infinite, dimension. Realistically, a statistician is unlikely to have informed opinions…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-01 David C. Kessler , Peter D. Hoff , David B. Dunson

Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updating on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Markovian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior putting enough weight on the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Ismaël Castillo , Richard Nickl

The famous G\"odel incompleteness theorem states that for every consistent sufficiently rich formal theory T there exist true statements that are unprovable in T. Such statements would be natural candidates for being added as axioms, but…

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

The Borel--Kolmogorov paradox of conditioning with respect to events of prior probability zero has fascinated students and researchers since its discovery more than 100 years ago. Classical conditioning is only valid with respect to events…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-04 Leon Bungert , Philipp Wacker

Improper priors are not allowed for the computation of the Bayesian evidence $Z=p({\bf y})$ (a.k.a., marginal likelihood), since in this case $Z$ is not completely specified due to an arbitrary constant involved in the computation. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 L. Martino , F. Llorente

Education in statistics, the application of statistics in scientific research, and statistics itself as a scientific discipline are in crisis. Within science, the main cause of the crisis is the insufficiently clarified concept of…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-10-03 Boris Čulina

We derive a conditional version of the classical regret-capacity theorem. This result can be used in universal prediction to find lower bounds on the minimal batch regret, which is a recently introduced generalization of the average regret,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Marco Bondaschi , Michael Gastpar

The Shapley-Folkman theorem shows that Minkowski averages of uniformly bounded sets tend to be convex when the number of terms in the sum becomes much larger than the ambient dimension. In optimization, Aubin and Ekeland [1976] show that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Thomas Kerdreux , Igor Colin , Alexandre d'Aspremont

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-09-01 G. D'Agostini