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Mathematical models of thrombosis are currently used to study clinical scenarios of pathological thrombus formation. Most of these models involve inherent uncertainties that must be assessed to increase the confidence in model predictions…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-02 Rodrigo Méndez Rojano , Mansur Zhussupbekov , James F. Antaki , Didier Lucor

Motivated by risk assessment of coastal flooding, we consider time-consuming simulators with a spatial output. The aim is to perform sensitivity analysis (SA), quantifying the influence of input parameters on the output. There are three…

Multivariate global polynomial approximations - such as polynomial chaos or stochastic collocation methods - are now in widespread use for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The pseudospectral variety of these methods uses…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-04-09 Paul G. Constantine , Michael S. Eldred , Eric T. Phipps

Sensitivity indices are commonly used to quantity the relative inuence of any specic group of input variables on the output of a computer code. In this paper, we focus both on computer codes the output of which is a cumulative distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-27 Jean-Claude Fort , Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux

The variance-based method of global sensitivity indices based on Sobol sensitivity indices became very popular among practitioners due to its easiness of interpretation. For complex practical problems computation of Sobol indices generally…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-03 Sergei Kucherenko , Shufang Song

A ubiquitous challenge in design space exploration or uncertainty quantification of complex engineering problems is the minimization of computational cost. A useful tool to ease the burden of solving such systems is model reduction. This…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-16 Felix Newberry , Jerrad Hampton , Kenneth Jansen , Alireza Doostan

The Sobol' indices are a recognized tool in global sensitivity analysis. When the uncertain variables in a model are statistically independent, the Sobol' indices may be easily interpreted and utilized. However, their interpretation and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-08-17 Joseph Hart , Pierre Gremaud

This article presents a general multivariate $f$-sensitivity index, rooted in the $f$-divergence between the unconditional and conditional probability measures of a stochastic response, for global sensitivity analysis. Unlike the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-12-09 Sharif Rahman

The non-intrusive generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method is a popular computational approach for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with random inputs. The main hurdle preventing its efficient direct application for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-19 Jiahua Jiang , Yanlai Chen , Akil Narayan

Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are widely recognized for their efficient computational performance in surrogate modeling. Yet, a robust framework to quantify local model errors is still lacking. While the local uncertainty of PCE…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 A. Hatstatt , X. Zhu , B. Sudret

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a recommended step in the use of computer simulation models. GSA quantifies the relative importance of model inputs on outputs (Factor Ranking), identifies inputs that could be fixed, thus simplifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Ken Newman , Shaini Naha , Leah Jackson-Blake , Cairistiona Topp , Miriam Glendell , Adam Butler

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan , Le Gan

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input-output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 John Barr , Herschel Rabitz

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of functional-output models is usually performed by combining statistical techniques, such as basis expansions, metamodeling and sampling based estimation of sensitivity indices. By neglecting truncation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuri Taglieri Sáo , Olivier Roustant , Geraldo de Freitas Maciel

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is frequently used to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in mathematical models and simulations. In principle, tools from GSA may be extended to analyze the influence of parameters in statistical…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-29 Joseph Hart , Julie Bessac , Emil Constantinescu

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-06-29 Todd A. Oliver , Christopher S. Simmons , Robert D. Moser

Computer simulation has become the standard tool in many engineering fields for designing and optimizing systems, as well as for assessing their reliability. To cope with demanding analysis such as optimization and reliability, surrogate…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-16 R. Schoebi , B. Sudret , J. Wiart

The variance-based method of Sobol sensitivity indices is very popular among practitioners due to its efficiency and easiness of interpretation. However, for high-dimensional models the direct application of this method can be very time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-26 S. Kucherenko , S. Song

A probabilistic performance-oriented controller design approach based on polynomial chaos expansion and optimization is proposed for flight dynamic systems. Unlike robust control techniques where uncertainties are conservatively handled,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-20 Dalong Shi , Xiang Fang , Florian Holzapfel

We propose the Variation Calibration Error (VCE) metric for assessing the calibration of machine learning classifiers. The metric can be viewed as an extension of the well-known Expected Calibration Error (ECE) which assesses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Andrew Thompson , Vivek Desai