Related papers: Is the bump significant? An axion-search example
Since neural networks can make wrong predictions even with high confidence, monitoring their behavior at runtime is important, especially in safety-critical domains like autonomous driving. In this paper, we combine ideas from previous…
In counting experiments, one can set an upper limit on the rate of a Poisson process based on a count of the number of events observed due to the process. In some experiments, one makes several counts of the number of events, using…
We present a new statistical test that examines the consistency of the tails of two empirical distributions at multiple thresholds. Such distributions are often encountered in counting experiments, in physics and elsewhere, where the…
The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…
Validation of quantum advantage claims in the context of Gaussian Boson Sampling (GBS) currently relies on providing evidence that the experimental samples genuinely follow their corresponding ground truth, i.e., the theoretical model of…
Several statistics used by physicists to declare the signal observability over the background are compared. It is shown that the frequentist method of testing a precise hypothesis allows one to estimate the power value of criteria with…
Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a…
Flux-resolved X-ray spectroscopy is widely adopted to investigate the spectral variation of a target between various flux levels. In many cases it is done through horizontally splitting a single light curve into multiple flux levels with…
A probabilistic technique for the joint estimation of background and sources with the aim of detecting faint and extended celestial objects is described. Bayesian probability theory is applied to gain insight into the coexistence of…
The PVLAS signal has led to the proposal of many experiments searching for light bosons coupled to photons. The coupling strength probed by these near future searches is, however, far from the allowed region, if astrophysical bounds apply.…
In this short note we will provide a sufficient and necessary condition to have uniqueness of the location of the maximum of a stochastic process over an interval. The result will also express the mean value of the location in terms of the…
We revisit the replica method for analyzing inference and learning in parametric models, considering situations where the data-generating distribution is unknown or analytically intractable. Instead of assuming idealized distributions to…
We study noise-induced switching of a system close to bifurcation parameter values where the number of stable states changes. For non-Gaussian noise, the switching exponent, which gives the logarithm of the switching rate, displays a…
Violation of the assumptions underlying classical (Gaussian) limit theory often yields unreliable statistical inference. This paper shows that the bootstrap can detect such violations by delivering simple and powerful diagnostic tests that…
High-precision measurements require optimal setups and analysis tools to achieve continuous improvements. Systematic corrections need to be modeled with high accuracy and known uncertainty to reconstruct underlying physical phenomena. To…
We suggest a method for statistical tests which does not suffer from a posteriori manipulations with tested samples (e.g. cuts optimization) and does not require a somewhat obscure procedure of the penalty estimate. The idea of the method…
The phenomena of subdiffusion are widely observed in physical and biological systems. To investigate the effects of external potentials, say, harmonic potential, linear potential, and time dependent force, we study the subdiffusion…
Following the discovery by Quashnock and Lamb (1993) of an apparent excess of $\gamma$-ray burst pairs with small angular separations, we reanalyze the angular distribution of the bursts in the BATSE catalogue. We find that in addition to…
Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…
Because of their quantum fluctuations, axion fields had a chance to experience field excursions traversing many minima of their potentials during inflation. We study this situation by analyzing the dynamics of an axion-spectator field…