Related papers: Risk assessment using suprema data
We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an…
In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…
Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model realworld probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood…
We present a novel approach to investigate the long-time stochastic dynamics of multi-dimensional classical systems, in contact with a heat-bath. When the potential energy landscape is rugged, the kinetics displays a decoupling of short and…
We show how statistical thermodynamics can be formulated in situations in which thermodynamics applies, while equilibrium statistical mechanics does not. A typical case is, in the words of Landau and Lifshitz, that of partial (or…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
In this paper, we investigate the parameter estimation for threshold Ornstein$\mathit{-}$Uhlenbeck processes. Least squares method is used to obtain continuous-type and discrete-type estimators for the drift parameters based on continuous…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
A scalar Langevin-type process $X(t)$ that is driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise $\eta(t)$ is non-Markovian. However, the joint dynamics of $X$ and $\eta$ is described by a Markov process in two dimensions. But even though there exists a…
We study the one-dimensional stochastic heat equation in the mild form driven by a general stochastic measure $\mu$, for $\mu$ we assume only $\sigma$-additivity in probability. The time averaging of the equation is considered, uniform a.…
We give an explicit representation for the transition law of a tempered stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and use it to develop a rejection sampling algorithm for exact simulation of increments from this process. Our results apply to…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
To describe the nonequilibrium states of a system we introduce a new thermodynamic parameter - the lifetime of a system. The statistical distributions which can be obtained out of the mesoscopic description characterizing the behaviour of a…
It is considered Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $ x_t = x_0 e^{-\theta t} + \mu (1-e^{-\theta t}) + \sigma \int_0^t e^{-\theta (t-s)} dW_s$, where $x_0 \in R$, $\theta>0$, $ \mu \in R$ and $\sigma > 0$ are parameters. By use values $(z_k)_{k…
Among the statistical mechanical frameworks able to describe systems in non-equilibrium steady states such as collisionless plasmas, self-gravitating systems and other complex systems, superstatistics have gained recent attention.…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
I introduce a general, Bayesian method for modelling univariate time series data assumed to be drawn from a continuous, stochastic process. The method accommodates arbitrary temporal sampling, and takes into account measurement…
We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be…
We estimate the temperature sensitivity of residential electricity demand during extreme temperature events using the distribution-to-scalar regression model. Rather than relying on simple averages or individual quantile statistics of raw…
Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…