A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans
Other Quantitative Biology
2025-08-27 v1
Abstract
We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2508.18553,
title = {A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans},
author = {Anna Singley and Carrie Manore and Hannah Highlander and Ben McMahon},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.18553},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
LA-UR-25-27500