Related papers: Risk assessment using suprema data
This paper develops a new stochastic volatility model for the temperature that is a natural extension of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model proposed by Benth and Benth (2007). This model allows to be more conservative regarding extreme events…
Understanding the statistical behavior of the heat in stochastic systems gives us insight about the thermodynamics of such systems. Using the recently proposed Relativistic Stochastic Thermodynamics, we investigate the statistics of the…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for…
The behavior of the average velocity, its deviation and average squared velocity are characterized using three techniques for a 1-D dissipative impact system. The system -- a particle, or an ensemble of non interacting particles, moving in…
The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…
We introduce a random matrix model for the stationary covariance of multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with heterogeneous temperatures, where the covariance is constrained by the Sylvester-Lyapunov equation. Using the replica method,…
In this article, we consider models for time-to-event data obtained from experiments in which stress levels are altered at intermediate stages during the observation period. These experiments, known as step-stress tests, belong to the…
We built a model of the daily temperature based on a diffusion process and address to extreme values not taken into account in the literature on this kind of models. We first study, using non parametric tools, the trends on mean and…
In this paper, a purely measurement-based method is proposed to estimate the dynamic system state matrix by applying the regression theorem of the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The proposed method employs a recursive algorithm to…
Spatio-temporal modelling is an increasingly popular topic in Statistics. Our paper contributes to this line of research by developing the theory, simulation and inference for a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We conduct…
Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…
We study the numerical approximation of the stochastic heat equation with a distributional reaction term. Under a condition on the Besov regularity of the reaction term, it was proven recently that a strong solution exists and is unique in…
Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…
From the perspective of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, modeling the velocity distribution of particles in non-equilibrium, steady-state plasmas presents a significant challenge. Under this context, a family of kappa distributions…
We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion, is adopted with which we…
Estimation of extreme-value parameters from observations in the max-domain of attraction (MDA) of a multivariate max-stable distribution commonly uses aggregated data such as block maxima. Since we expect that additional information is…
Data on a continuous variable are often summarized by means of histograms or displayed in tabular format: the range of data is partitioned into consecutive interval classes and the number of observations falling within each class is…