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Related papers: A buffer Hawkes process for limit order books

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We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

We develop a cross-border market model for two countries based on a continuous trading mechanism, in which the transmission capacities that enable transactions between market participants from different countries are limited. Our market…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-26 Cassandra Milbradt , Dörte Kreher

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of the limit order book. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of bid…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-09 V. Yu. Korolev , A. V. Chertok , A. Yu. Korchagin , A. I. Zeifman

Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Anna Bonnet , Felix Cheysson , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

Some recent papers relate the criticality of complex systems to their maximal capacity of information processing. In the present paper, we consider high dimensional point processes, known as age-dependent Hawkes processes, which have been…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Julien Chevallier

The principal aim of the present work is to explore limit theorems for small random perturbations of dynamical systems with periodic impulse effects, in the limit of vanishing noise intensity. We start with a system whose time evolution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Ashif Khan , Chetan D. Pahlajani

We study finite particle systems on the one-dimensional integer lattice, where each particle performs a continuous-time nearest-neighbour random walk, with jump rates intrinsic to each particle, subject to an exclusion interaction which…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-07 Vadim Malyshev , Mikhail Menshikov , Serguei Popov , Andrew Wade

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes whose intensity depends on the past history, and is in general non-Markovian. Limit theorems for Hawkes processes in various asymptotic regimes have been studied in the literature. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Inspired by the recent work of Bertini and Posta, who introduced the boundary driven Brownian gas on $[0,1]$, we study boundary driven systems of independent particles in a general setting, including particles jumping on finite graphs and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-24 Gioia Carinci , Simone Floreani , Cristian Giardinà , Frank Redig

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study large time behavior of critical marked Hawkes processes and related branching particle systems. In case of marked Hawkes processes we assume that the kernel function has multiplicative form and the marks corresponding to the events…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Anna Talarczyk

We consider certain noncolliding interacting particle systems driven by Brownian noise. A key example is drifted Brownian motions conditioned not to intersect and related models of eigenvalues of Hermitian random matrices. We establish…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Mustazee Rahman

The paper studies a single-server queueing system with autonomous service and $\ell$ priority classes. Arrival and departure processes are governed by marked point processes. There are $\ell$ buffers corresponding to priority classes, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-04 Vyacheslav M. Abramov

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We introduce, and formally establish, a variant of the Hawkes-fed birth-death process -- the delayed Hawkes birth-death process -- in which the conditional intensity does not increase at arrivals but at departures from the system. In a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Justin Baars , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

A field theoretical framework is developed for the Hawkes self-excited point process with arbitrary memory kernels by embedding the original non-Markovian one-dimensional dynamics onto a Markovian infinite-dimensional one. The corresponding…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-23 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-13 Santhosh Narayanan , Carsten Maple , Mark Hooper

Brownian motion is the only random process which is Gaussian, stationary and Markovian. Dropping the Markovian property, i.e. allowing for memory, one obtains a class of processes called fractional Brownian motion, indexed by the Hurst…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-07-27 Mathieu Delorme , Kay Jörg Wiese

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl