Related papers: Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating
While deep learning-based classification is generally tackled using standardized approaches, a wide variety of techniques are employed for regression. In computer vision, one particularly popular such technique is that of confidence-based…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
Determining the sequence of events in the formation of stars and planetary systems and their time-scales is essential for understanding those processes, yet establishing ages is fundamentally difficult because we lack direct indicators. In…
We first introduce a novel profile-based alignment algorithm, the multiple continuous Signal Alignment algorithm with Gaussian Process Regression profiles (SA-GPR). SA-GPR addresses the limitations of currently available signal alignment…
Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…
Detection of millikelvin-level signals from the 'Cosmic Dawn' requires an unprecedented level of sensitivity and systematic calibration. We report the theory behind a novel calibration algorithm developed from the formalism introduced by…
In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…
Thermal history models, that have been used to understand the geological history of Earth, are now being coupled to climate models to map conditions that allow planets to maintain surface water over geologic time - a criteria considered…
The use of mathematical models to make predictions about tumor growth and response to treatment has become increasingly more prevalent in the clinical setting. The level of complexity within these models ranges broadly, and the calibration…
The traditional manual age estimation method is crucial labor based on many kinds of the X-Ray image. Some current studies have shown that lateral cephalometric(LC) images can be used to estimate age. However, these methods are based on…
This overview summarizes the age dating methods available for young sub-solar mass stars. Pre-main sequence age diagnostics include the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram, spectroscopic surface gravity indicators, and lithium depletion;…
This paper proposes a new minimum description length procedure to detect multiple changepoints in time series data when some times are a priori thought more likely to be changepoints. This scenario arises with temperature time series…
Given an observed sample from a population of individuals belonging to species, "species-sampling" problems (SSPs) call for estimating some features of the unknown species composition of additional unobservable samples from the same…
Dam breach models are commonly used to predict outflow hydrographs of potentially failing dams and are key ingredients for evaluating flood risk. In this paper a new dam breach modeling framework is introduced that shall improve the…
We present a Bayesian nonparametric system reliability model which scales well and provides a great deal of flexibility in modeling. The Bayesian approach naturally handles the disparate amounts of component and subsystem data that may…
Clustering procedures typically estimate which data points are clustered together, a quantity of primary importance in many analyses. Often used as a preliminary step for dimensionality reduction or to facilitate interpretation, finding…
Accurate estimates of historical changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their uncertainties are important for documenting and understanding historical changes in climate. A source of uncertainty that has not previously been…
We conduct a statistical analysis of a combined sample of direct imaging data, totalling nearly 250 stars. The stars cover a wide range of ages and spectral types, and include five detections ($\kappa$ And b, two $\sim$60 M$_{\rm J}$ brown…
This paper illustrates an application of machine learning (ML) within a complex system that performs grade estimation. In surface mining, assay measurements taken from production drilling often provide useful information that allows…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…