Related papers: Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating
Credible intervals and credible sets, such as highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, form an integral statistical tool in Bayesian phylogenetics, both for phylogenetic analyses and for development. Readily available for continuous…
Responsive Survey Design (RSD) aims to increase the efficiency of survey data collection via live monitoring of paradata and the introduction of protocol changes when survey errors and increased costs seem imminent. Daily predictions of…
Estimates of molecular divergence times when rates of evolution vary require the assumption of a model of rate change. Brownian motion is one such model, and since rates cannot become negative, a log Brownian model seems appropriate.…
We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the…
We use rapidly cooled achondrites to test the assumption of 26Al homogeneity in the solar nebula, by checking if there is a single value of tSS, the absolute "Pb-Pb" age of the Solar System's t=0, that makes concordant their ages from the…
Context. Establishing a self-consistent age scale for stellar populations requires physically well-calibrated chronometers. Among these, lithium-based diagnostics, particularly the lithium depletion boundary (LDB), provide one of the most…
We report on an ongoing investigation into a seismic calibration of solar models designed for estimating the main-sequence age and a measure of the chemical abundances of the Sun. Only modes of low degree are employed, so that with…
We present a Bayesian dynamical inference method for characterizing cardiorespiratory (CR) dynamics in humans by inverse modelling from blood pressure time-series data. This new method is applicable to a broad range of stochastic dynamical…
Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…
Updated evolutionary and pulsational model predictions are combined in order to interpret the properties of Galactic Classical Cepheids in the Gaia Data Release 2. In particular, the location of the instability strip boundaries and the…
Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…
A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…
We are carrying out a search for planets around a sample of solar twin stars using the HARPS spectrograph. The goal of this project is to exploit the advantage offered by solar twins to obtain chemical abundances of unmatched precision.…
It takes years of effort employing the best telescopes and instruments to obtain high-quality stellar photometry, astrometry, and spectroscopy. Stellar evolution models contain the experience of lifetimes of theoretical calculations and…
Aggregate measures of family planning are used to monitor demand for and usage of contraceptive methods in populations globally, for example as part of the FP2030 initiative. Family planning measures for low- and middle-income countries are…
Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…
We investigate the performance of grid-based techniques in estimating the age of stars in detached eclipsing binary systems. We evaluate the precision of the estimates due to the uncertainty in the observational constraints, and the…
In many applications, accurate class probability estimates are required, but many types of models produce poor quality probability estimates despite achieving acceptable classification accuracy. Even though probability calibration has been…
In the last two decades, several methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have been proposed for Bayesian identification of stochastic non-linear state-space models (SSMs). It is well known that the…
Context. Determining the ages of young stellar systems is fundamental to test and validate current star-formation theories. Aims. We aim at developing a Bayesian version of the expansion rate method that incorporates the a priori knowledge…