Related papers: Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating
The increasing interest in understanding anthropogenic impacts on the environment have led to a considerable number of studies focusing on sedimentary records for the last $\sim$ 100 - 200 years. Dating this period is often complicated by…
Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to…
Pre-main sequence (PMS) models provide invaluable tools for the study of star forming regions as they allow to assign masses and ages to young stars. Thus it is of primary importance to test the models against observations of PMS stars with…
Ice cores record crucial information about past climate. However, before ice core data can have scientific value, the chronology must be inferred by estimating the age as a function of depth. Under certain conditions, chemicals locked in…
A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2…
Recent developments in instrumentation (e.g., in particular the Kepler and CoRoT satellites) provide a new opportunity to improve the models of stellar pulsations. Surface layers, rotation, and magnetic fields imprint erratic frequency…
Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular the fossilized…
Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…
Geological maps are an extremely valuable source of information for the Earth sciences. They provide insights into mineral exploration, vulnerability to natural hazards, and many other applications. These maps are created using numerical or…
Geostatistical modeling of the reservoir intrinsic properties starts only with sparse data available. These estimates will depend largely on the number of wells and their location. The drilling costs are so high that they do not allow new…
Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…
A commonly-used paradigm to estimate changes in the frequency of past events or the size of populations is to consider the occurrence rate of archaeological/environmental samples found at a site over time. The reliability of such a…
To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…
In the absence of constraints from the binary companion or supernova remnant, the standard method for estimating pulsar ages is to infer an age from the rate of spin-down. While the generic spin-down age may give realistic estimates for…
Radiocarbon dating poses a challenge in many archaeological contexts due to the limited precision of conventional calibration methods. In this study, we introduce a novel approach to fine-dating that is based on the repeated application of…
The ages of young star clusters are fundamental clocks to constrain the formation and evolution of pre-main-sequence stars and their protoplanetary disks and exoplanets. However, dating methods for very young clusters often disagree,…
We describe an extension of the most recent version of the Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS2), produced using a new multi-band Bayesian Extraction and Estimation Package (BeeP). BeeP assumes that the compact sources present in…
The Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) provides a lower bound on the mean square error of any Bayesian estimator under mild regularity conditions. It can be used to benchmark the performance of statistical estimators, and provides a…
Correlations between planetary and stellar properties, particularly age, can provide insight on planetary formation and evolution processes. However, the underlying source of such trends can be unclear, and measurement uncertainties and…
Period estimation is an important task in the classification of many variable astrophysical objects. Here we present GRAPE: Genetic Routine for Astronomical Period Estimation, a genetic algorithm optimised for the processing of survey data…