Related papers: A default system with overspilling contagion
We examine how the ability of a system to redundantly proliferate relevant information about its pointer states is affected when it is coupled to multiple baths. To this end, we consider a system in contact with two baths: one -- termed the…
The problem of pattern formation in a generic two species reaction--diffusion model is studied, under the hypothesis that only one species can diffuse. For such a system, the classical Turing instability cannot take place. At variance, by…
Complex contagion models that involve contagion along higher-order structures, such as simplicial complexes and hypergraphs, yield new classes of mean-field models. Interestingly, the differential equations arising from many such models…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
We motivate and explore the basic features of generalized contagion, a model mechanism that unifies fundamental models of biological and social contagion. Generalized contagion builds on the elementary observation that spreading and…
We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides…
Behavioral adoptions are influenced by peers in different ways. While some individuals may change after a single incoming influence, others need multiple cumulated attempts. These two mechanism, known as the simple and the complex…
We study the nonlocal non-Markovian effects through local interactions between two subsystems and the corresponding two environments. It has been found that the initial correlations between two environments can turn a Markovian to a…
We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. Allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random…
In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the…
We consider a large collection of dynamically interacting components defined on a weighted directed graph determining the impact of default of one component to another one. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical measure capturing…
Group-based reinforcement can induce discontinuous transitions from inactive to active phases in higher-order contagion models. However, these results are typically obtained on static interaction structures or within mean-field…
A stochastic system under the influence of a stochastic environment is correlated with both present and future states of the environment. Such a system can be seen as implicitly implementing a predictive model of future environmental…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
This paper investigates two mechanisms of financial contagion that are, firstly, the correlated exposure of banks to the same source of risk, and secondly the direct exposure of banks in the interbank market. It will consider a random…
Motivated by the detection of cascades of defaults in economy, we developed a detection framework for an endogenous spreading based on causal motifs we define in this paper. We assume that the change of state of a vertex can be triggered by…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…
In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…
Price-mediated contagion occurs when a positive feedback loop develops following a drop in asset prices which forces banks and other financial institutions to sell their holdings. Prior studies of such events fix the level of market…
Single contagion processes are known to display a continuous transition from an epidemic-free phase at low contagion rates to the epidemic state for rates above a critical threshold. This transition can become discontinuous when two simple…