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Marginal structural models (MSMs) are often used to estimate causal effects of treatments on survival time outcomes from observational data when time-dependent confounding may be present. They can be fitted using, e.g., inverse probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-27 Shaun R Seaman , Ruth H Keogh

Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In a real-life setting, little is known regarding the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention among older adults, and analysis of observational data can add crucial information on the benefits of actual patterns of use. Latent class…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-18 Awa Diop , Caroline Sirois , Jason Robert Guertin , Denis Talbot

Clinical prediction models (CPMs) are used to predict clinically relevant outcomes or events. Typically, prognostic CPMs are derived to predict the risk of a single future outcome. However, with rising emphasis on the prediction of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Glen P. Martin , Matthew Sperrin , Kym I. E. Snell , Iain Buchan , Richard D. Riley

A new class of Marginal Structural Models (MSMs), History-Restricted MSMs (HRMSMs), was recently introduced for longitudinal data for the purpose of defining causal parameters which may often be better suited for public health research or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan , Marshall M. Joffe , Ira B. Tager

Performance monitoring of machine learning (ML)-based risk prediction models in healthcare is complicated by the issue of confounding medical interventions (CMI): when an algorithm predicts a patient to be at high risk for an adverse event,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-17 Jean Feng , Alexej Gossmann , Gene Pennello , Nicholas Petrick , Berkman Sahiner , Romain Pirracchio

Observational longitudinal data on treatments and covariates are increasingly used to investigate treatment effects, but are often subject to time-dependent confounding. Marginal structural models (MSMs), estimated using inverse probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-11 Ruth H. Keogh , Shaun R. Seaman , Jon Michael Gran , Stijn Vansteelandt

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are widely used in observational studies to estimate the causal effect of time-varying treatments. Despite its popularity, limited attention has been paid to summarizing the treatment history in the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Jiewen Liu , Todd A. Miano , Stephen Griffiths , Michael G. S. Shashaty , Wei Yang

Robins (1998) introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. He established…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-17 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Haben Michael , Yifan Cui

The three state illness death model has been established as a general approach for regression analysis of semi competing risks data. For observational data the marginal structural models (MSM) are a useful tool, under the potential outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-20 Yiran Zhang , Andrew Ying , Steve Edland , Lon White , Ronghui Xu

Missing data is a challenge when developing, validating and deploying clinical prediction models (CPMs). Traditionally, decisions concerning missing data handling during CPM development and validation havent accounted for whether…

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Antonio Remiro-Azócar , Anna Heath , Gianluca Baio

We develop a marginal treatment effect based method to learn about causal effects in multiple treatment models with discrete instruments. We allow selection into treatment to be governed by a general class of threshold crossing models that…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Vishal Kamat , Samuel Norris , Matthew Pecenco

Longitudinal observational patient data can be used to investigate the causal effects of time-varying treatments on time-to-event outcomes. Several methods have been developed for controlling for the time-dependent confounding that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-08 Ruth H. Keogh , Jon Michael Gran , Shaun R. Seaman , Gwyneth Davies , Stijn Vansteelandt

Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (MMRMs) are ubiquitous when analyzing outcomes of clinical trials. However, the linearity of the fixed-effect structure in these models largely restrict their use to estimating treatment effects that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-23 Lars Lau Raket

When prospectively developing a new clinical prediction model (CPM), fixed sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. But if the assumptions are inaccurate the actual sample size…

Inverse probability (IP) weighting of marginal structural models (MSMs) can provide consistent estimators of time-varying treatment effects under correct model specifications and identifiability assumptions, even in the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Nodoka Seya , Masataka Taguri , Takeo Ishii

Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already received the treatment the prediction model is…

Explanatory studies, such as randomized controlled trials, are targeted to extract the true causal effect of interventions on outcomes and are by design adjusted for covariates through randomization. On the contrary, observational studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-02 Riddhiman Adib , Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed , Mohammad Adibuzzaman

In longitudinal observational studies, marginal structural models (MSMs) are a class of causal models used to analyse the effect of an exposure on the (time-to-event) outcome of interest, while accounting for exposure-affected…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Marta Spreafico
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