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For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

An important statistical inference problem in sequential analysis is the construction of confidence intervals following sequential tests, to which Michael Woodroofe has made fundamental contributions. This paper reviews Woodroofe's method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Tze Leung Lai , Zheng Su , Chin Shan Chuang

Multiple systems estimation using a Poisson loglinear model is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. Information criteria are often used for selecting between the large…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-23 Bernard W. Silverman , Lax Chan , Kyle Vincent

We consider the variance of a function of $n$ independent random variables and provide new inequalities which, in particular, extend previous results obtained for symmetric functions in the i.i.d.~setting. For instance, we obtain various…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Olivier Bousquet , Christian Houdré

We introduce a novel approach called the Bayesian Jackknife empirical likelihood method for analyzing survey data obtained from various unequal probability sampling designs. This method is particularly applicable to parameters described by…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-14 Mengdong Shang , Xia Chen

When faced with severely imbalanced binary classification problems, we often train models on bootstrapped data in which the number of instances of each class occur in a more favorable ratio, e.g., one. We view algorithmic inequity through…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-17 Harish S. Bhat , Majerle E. Reeves , Sidra Goldman-Mellor

Samples with a common mean but possibly different, ordered variances arise in various fields such as interlaboratory experiments, field studies or the analysis of sensor data. Estimators for the common mean under ordered variances typically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Ansgar Steland , Yuan-Tsung Chang

The requirement of uncertainty quantification for anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates ($\alpha$) without compromising the statistical power ($1-\beta$) of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-21 Oliver Hennhöfer , Christine Preisach

Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Emmanuel J. Candès

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-06 Pascal Rink , Werner Brannath

In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-02 Q. A. Meertens , C. G. H. Diks , H. J. van den Herik , F W Takes

The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-03 Anne-Laure Fougères , Laurens de Haan , Cécile Mercadier

This paper is concerned with finite sample approximations to the supremum of a non-degenerate $U$-process of a general order indexed by a function class. We are primarily interested in situations where the function class as well as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-15 Xiaohui Chen , Kengo Kato

Westling and Carone (2020) proposed a framework for studying the large sample distributional properties of generalized Grenander-type estimators, a versatile class of nonparametric estimators of monotone functions. The limiting distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-08 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa

Bootstrap techniques (also called resampling computation techniques) have introduced new advances in modeling and model evaluation. Using resampling methods to construct a series of new samples which are based on the original data set,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Riadh Kallel , Marie Cottrell , Vincent Vigneron

Model averaging has gained significant attention in recent years due to its ability of fusing information from different models. The critical challenge in frequentist model averaging is the choice of weight vector. The bootstrap method,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Minghui Song , Guohua Zou , Alan T. K. Wan

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are instrumental in modelling sequential and time-series data. Yet, when using RNNs to inform decision-making, predictions by themselves are not sufficient; we also need estimates of predictive uncertainty.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Botao Hao , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Zheng Wen , Guang Cheng

Fault detection is crucial to ensure the reliability of navigation systems. However, mainstream fault detection methods are developed based on Gaussian assumptions on nominal errors, while current attempts at non-Gaussian fault detection…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-01 Penggao Yan , Baoshan Song , Xiao Xia , Weisong Wen , Li-Ta Hsu

This paper develops distribution theory and bootstrap-based inference methods for a broad class of convex pairwise difference estimators. These estimators minimize a kernel-weighted convex-in-parameter function over observation pairs with…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-29 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa