Related papers: Random Coin Tossing with unknown bias
Knockoffs are a popular statistical framework that addresses the challenging problem of conditional variable selection in high-dimensional settings with statistical control. Such statistical control is essential for the reliability of…
We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side $1$ with…
This paper proposes a unified theoretical model to identify and test a comprehensive set of probabilistic updating biases within a single framework. The model achieves separate identification by focusing on the updating of belief…
We analyze a simple random process in which a token is moved in the interval $A=\{0,...,n\$: Fix a probability distribution $\mu$ over $\{1,...,n\$. Initially, the token is placed in a random position in $A$. In round $t$, a random value…
We present a new protocol and two lower bounds for quantum coin flipping. In our protocol, no dishonest party can achieve one outcome with probability more than 0.75. Then, we show that our protocol is optimal for a certain type of quantum…
Testing by betting has been a cornerstone of the game-theoretic statistics literature. One bets against the null hypothesis, and the accumulated wealth $W_t$ quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis after $t$ rounds, and the null…
The takeoff point for this paper is the voluminous body of literature addressing recursive betting games with expected logarithmic growth of wealth being the performance criterion. Whereas almost all existing papers involve use of linear…
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend…
Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they…
We consider the urn setting with two different objects, ``good'' and ``bad'', and analyze the number of draws without replacement until a good object is picked. Although the expected number of draws for this setting is a standard textbook…
A method for the numerical simulation of signed probability distributions for the case of tossing $1/n$-th of a coin is presented and illustrated by examples.
We present a quantum protocol for the task of weak coin flipping. We find that, for one choice of parameters in the protocol, the maximum probability of a dishonest party winning the coin flip if the other party is honest is 1/sqrt(2). We…
In this work, we establish a nontrivial level of distribution for densities on $\{1,\ldots, N\}$ obtained by a biased coin convolution. As a consequence of sieving theory, one then derives the expected lower bound for the weight of such…
A classical result of K. L. Chung and W. Feller deals with the partial sums $S_k$ arising in a fair coin-tossing game. If $N_n$ is the number of "positive" terms among $S_1, S_2,\dots,S_n$ then the quantity $P(N_{2n}=2r)$ takes an elegant…
We study the problem of designing consistent sequential two-sample tests in a nonparametric setting. Guided by the principle of testing by betting, we reframe this task into that of selecting a sequence of payoff functions that maximize the…
We revisit the game in which each of several players chooses a pattern and then a coin is flipped repeatedly until one of these patterns is generated. In particular, we demonstrate how to compute the probability of any one player winning…
We show that a secure quantum protocol for coin tossing exist. The existence of quantum coin tossing support the conjecture of D.Mayers [Phys.Rev.Lett. 78, 3414(1997)] that only asymmetrical tasks as quantum bit commitment are impossible.
Many real life situations require a set of items to be repeatedly placed in a random sequence. In such circumstances, it is often desirable to test whether such randomization indeed obtains, yet this problem has received very limited…
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…
We present a novel reshuffling exchange model and investigate its long time behavior. In this model, two individuals are picked randomly, and their wealth $X_i$ and $X_j$ are redistributed by flipping a sequence of fair coins leading to a…