Related papers: Risk measure estimation for $\beta$-mixing time se…
The estimation of conditional quantiles at extreme tails is of great interest in numerous applications. Various methods that integrate regression analysis with an extrapolation strategy derived from extreme value theory have been proposed…
Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…
In this paper we characterize the mixing properties in the advection of passive tracers by exploiting the extreme value theory for dynamical systems. With respect to classical techniques directly related to the Poincar\'e recurrences…
This paper focuses on rare events associated with the tail probabilities of the extremal eigenvalues in the $\beta$-Jacobi ensemble, which plays a critical role in both multivariate statistical analysis and statistical physics. Under the…
In this work, we focus on some conditional extreme risk measures estimation for elliptical random vectors. In a previous paper, we proposed a methodology to approximate extreme quantiles, based on two extremal parameters. We thus propose…
The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…
Understanding treatment effects in extreme regimes is important for characterizing risks associated with different interventions. This is hindered by the unavailability of counterfactual outcomes and the rarity and difficulty of collecting…
In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…
We study a new estimator for the tail index of a distribution in the Frechet domain of attraction that arises naturally by computing subsample maxima. This estimator is equivalent to taking a U-statistic over a Hill estimator with two order…
Estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is often required for risk assessment of natural hazards in climate and geo-environmental sciences and for quantitative risk management in statistical finance, econometrics, and actuarial…
In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…
The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…
For extreme value estimation we propose to use a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the center and generalized Pareto densities for the tails. Due to the randomness in the center and a heavy tailed density in the…
In this paper, we consider the tail probabilities of extremals of $\beta$-Jacobi ensemble which plays an important role in multivariate analysis. The key steps in constructing estimators rely on the rate functions of large deviations.…
We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…
Extremal quantile regression, i.e. quantile regression applied to the tails of the conditional distribution, counts with an increasing number of economic and financial applications such as value-at-risk, production frontiers, determinants…
In this paper we consider the semi-parametric estimation of extreme quantiles of a right heavy-tail model. We propose a new Log Probability Weighted Moment estimator for extreme quantiles, which is obtained from the estimators of the shape…