Related papers: Risk measure estimation for $\beta$-mixing time se…
Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…
In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process.…
Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…
Estimating the probabilistic Worst-Case Execution Time (pWCET) is essential for ensuring the timing correctness of real-time applications, such as in robot IoT systems and autonomous driving systems. While methods based on Extreme Value…
In extreme value analysis, the extreme value index plays a vital role as it determines the tail heaviness of the underlying distribution and is the primary parameter required for the estimation of other extreme events. In this paper, we…
In this paper, we propose a novel frequency-severity joint trip-level risk index that combines the frequency of abnormal driving patterns with a severity component reflecting how extreme such behavior is relative to a portfolio-level…
Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…
In this chapter, we illustrate the use of split bulk-tail models and subasymptotic models motivated by extreme-value theory in the context of hazard assessment for earthquake-induced landslides. A spatial joint areal model is presented for…
The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments.…
Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…
We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the…
The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…
In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible…
In this study, we propose a robust mixture regression procedure based on the skew t distribution to model heavy-tailed and/or skewed errors in a mixture regression setting. Using the scale mixture representation of the skew t distribution,…
In recent years several attempts have been made to extend tail modelling towards the modal part of the data. Frigessi et al. (2002) introduced dynamic mixtures of two components with a weight function {\pi} = {\pi}(x) smoothly connecting…
In this paper we continue the investigation of the SRCEN estimator of the extreme value index $\gamma$ (or the tail index $\alpha=1/\gamma$) proposed in \cite{MCE} for $\gamma>1/2$. We propose a new estimator based on the local maximum.…
This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…