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We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-07 Lin Fan , Junting Duan , Peter W. Glynn , Markus Pelger

Many modern datasets don't fit neatly into $n \times p$ matrices, but most techniques for measuring statistical stability expect rectangular data. We study methods for stability assessment on non-rectangular data, using statistical learning…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-23 Kris Sankaran

This paper deals with two-sample tests for functional time series data, which have become widely available in conjunction with the advent of modern complex observation systems. Here, particular interest is in evaluating whether two sets of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Alexander Aue , Holger Dette , Gregory Rice

We propose an informal test for stationarity in a time series which checks for the compatibility of nonlinear approximations to the dynamics made in different segments of the sequence. The segments are compared directly, rather than via…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Patrick E. McSharry , Leonard A. Smith

The main goal is to develop and, consequently, compare stochastic methods for detection whether a structural change in panel data occurred at some unknown time or not. Panel data of our interest consist of a moderate or relatively large…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-22 Barbora Peštová , Michal Pešta

Sequential monitoring of randomized trials traditionally relies on parametric assumptions or asymptotic approximations. We discuss a family of nonparametric sequential tests - collectively called e-RT - for binary, event-only, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fernando G Zampieri

Given a set of aligned sequences of independent noisy observations, we are concerned with detecting intervals where the mean values of the observations change simultaneously in a subset of the sequences. The intervals of changed means are…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-17 David Siegmund , Benjamin Yakir , Nancy R. Zhang

In group sequential designs, where several data looks are conducted for early stopping, we generally assume the vector of test statistics from the sequential analyses follows (at least approximately or asymptotially) a multivariate normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Long-Hao Xu , Tobias Mütze , Frank Konietschke , Tim Friede

A nonparametric anomalous hypothesis testing problem is investigated, in which there are totally n sequences with s anomalous sequences to be detected. Each typical sequence contains m independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-15 Shaofeng Zou , Yingbin Liang , H. Vincent Poor , Xinghua Shi

We prove a strong approximation result for the empirical process associated to a stationary sequence of real-valued random variables, under dependence conditions involving only indicators of half lines. This strong approximation result also…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-22 Jérôme Dedecker , Florence Merlevède , Emmanuel Rio

The assumption of separability is a simplifying and very popular assumption in the analysis of spatio-temporal or hypersurface data structures. It is often made in situations where the covariance structure cannot be easily estimated, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-03 Pramita Bagchi , Holger Dette

The random coefficients model is an extension of the linear regression model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in the population by modeling the regression coefficients as random variables. Given data from this model, the statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-15 Fabian Dunker , Konstantin Eckle , Katharina Proksch , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We establish central limit theorems for principal eigenvalues and eigenvectors under a large factor model setting, and develop two-sample tests of both principal eigenvalues and principal eigenvectors. One important application is to detect…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Jianqing Fan , Yingying Li , Ningning Xia , Xinghua Zheng

In this paper, we propose a class of monitoring statistics for a mean shift in a sequence of high-dimensional observations. Inspired by the recent U-statistic based retrospective tests developed by Wang et al.(2019) and Zhang et al.(2020),…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Teng Wu , Runmin Wang , Hao Yan , Xiaofeng Shao

Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

We provide finite-sample distribution approximations, that are uniform in the parameter, for inference in linear mixed models. Focus is on variances and covariances of random effects in cases where existing theory fails because their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Matteo Bottai

In this paper, we study robust covariance estimation under the approximate factor model with observed factors. We propose a novel framework to first estimate the initial joint covariance matrix of the observed data and the factors, and then…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-03 Jianqing Fan , Weichen Wang , Yiqiao Zhong

This article develops a method to construct the optimal sequential test for monitoring the changes in the distribution of finite observation sequences with a general dependence structure. This method allows us to prove that different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-01 Dong Han , Fugee Tsung , Jinguo Xian

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-18 Michael Vogt , Holger Dette