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In the quest to make defensible causal claims from observational data, it is sometimes possible to leverage information from "placebo treatments" and "placebo outcomes". Existing approaches employing such information focus largely on point…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Adam Rohde , Chad Hazlett

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Determinantal point process have recently been used as models in machine learning and this has raised questions regarding the characterizations of conditional independence. In this paper we investigate characterizations of conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-01 Tvrtko Tadić

In this work we consider the task of relaxing the i.i.d assumption in pattern recognition (or classification), aiming to make existing learning algorithms applicable to a wider range of tasks. Pattern recognition is guessing a discrete…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-28 Daniil Ryabko

We propose a new conditional dependence measure and a statistical test for conditional independence. The measure is based on the difference between analytic kernel embeddings of two well-suited distributions evaluated at a finite set of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Meyer Scetbon , Laurent Meunier , Yaniv Romano

In this article we estimate confidence regions of the common measures of (baseline, treatment effect) in observational studies, where the measure of baseline is baseline risk or baseline odds while the measure of treatment effect is odds…

Computation · Statistics 2015-01-22 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-13 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

Understanding the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest, ranging from political economics, marketing to healthcare. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric algorithm for detecting the effects of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

Measuring conditional dependencies among the variables of a network is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies some shortcomings of the existing dependency measures in detecting direct causal influences or their lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-05 Jalal Etesami , Kun Zhang , Negar Kiyavash

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

Predictive or treatment selection biomarkers are usually evaluated in a subgroup or regression analysis with focus on the treatment-by-marker interaction. Under a potential outcome framework (Huang, Gilbert and Janes [Biometrics 68 (2012)…

Applications · Statistics 2015-02-04 Zhiwei Zhang , Lei Nie , Guoxing Soon , Aiyi Liu

In causal inference, principal stratification is a framework for dealing with a posttreatment intermediate variable between a treatment and an outcome, in which the principal strata are defined by the joint potential values of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding

Randomized experiments on social networks pose statistical challenges, due to the possibility of interference between units. We propose new methods for estimating attributable treatment effects in such settings. The methods do not require…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-13 David S. Choi

The goal of this paper is to integrate the notions of stochastic conditional independence and variation conditional independence under a more general notion of extended conditional independence. We show that under appropriate assumptions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Panayiota Constantinou , A. Philip Dawid